From 251 points to 215 points, from nearly losing 3000 points to recovering 3200 points, the ups and downs of the Shanghai stock index in the short term are very rare in the history of a shares. As of the closing on the 18th, the Shanghai stock index closed at 325107 points. The current valuation is lower than that on October 28, 2008. The roller coaster market has plunged investor confidence.
It is worth mentioning that in April 2017, the Shanghai stock index went all the way down. On May 11 of the same year, the Shanghai stock index went out of the stage low of 3016, which was closest to the current low of 3023 (March 15); In addition, the current valuation is lower than the stage low of 1665 since 6124 (October 28, 2008).
These three time points are also from high to low. What are the similarities and differences in terms of valuation, market structure, capital flow and institutional positions? Will the dawn come under various rescue policies?
feature I
current valuation is below historical low
traditional industries fell sharply
On March 15, 2022, the price earnings ratio of Shanghai stock index was only 12 times, and the price earnings ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was less than 12 times. On October 28, 2008, the price earnings ratio of Shanghai stock index was 13.49 times and that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was 12.8 times in the same period; On May 11, 2017, the valuation of Shanghai stock index and CSI 300 exceeded 12.5 times.
that is, the current valuation is lower than that on October 28, 2008 and May 11, 2017
By industry, the valuation of 12 industries is lower than the level on October 28, 2008, and 25 industries are lower than the level on May 11, 2017. The P / E ratio of traditional industries such as building materials, environmental protection, petroleum and petrochemical and building decoration has decreased significantly, and the current P / E ratio is lower than 20 times. The current P / E ratio of communication, electronics and other industries decreased by more than 40% compared with May 11, 2017. The current valuation of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, automobile, food and beverage is much higher than the low point of the two stages (referring to October 28, 2008 and May 11, 2017, the same below).
feature II
different market structure
low priced shares accounted for three times as much as May 11, 2017
From 2008 to 2022, the market structure changed significantly, and low-cost stocks became scarce according to experience, low-priced stocks are easier to rebound at the bottom of the market a shares closed at a median price of 439 million yuan on October 28, 2008 and 13.5 yuan on May 11, 2017. At present, it is less than 12 yuan.
In terms of the proportion of quantity, on October 28, 2008, low-priced stocks below 5 yuan accounted for nearly 60%, and low-priced stocks above 50 yuan accounted for less than 1%; The market structure of the latter two periods is more similar. At present, the proportion of low-priced stocks below 5 yuan is close to three times that of May 11, 2017; The proportion of 5 yuan to 10 yuan shares was basically the same at the three time points.
feature III
leveraged funds and foreign capital accelerated admission
leveraged funds belong to a class of funds with high risk preference, and the balance of the two financial institutions has a strong correlation with the market trend. At present, the entry of leveraged funds is accelerated
On May 11, 2017, the balance of the two financial institutions was less than 900 billion yuan, including 882669 billion yuan of financing balance. Compared with the high point at the end of November 2016, the financing balance decreased by nearly 10 billion yuan; On March 15, 2022, the balance of the two financial institutions was close to 1.7 trillion, of which the financing balance exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 150 billion yuan from the high point of 1758379 billion yuan on September 15, 2021 The outflow rate of the former slowed down slightly by 2.9 points, while that of the latter decreased slightly
It is worth mentioning that compared with 2017, the current inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares has also accelerated. However, in the five trading days before May 11, 2017, there were four days of net inflows of funds going north; Before March 15, there were significant net sales for 6 consecutive days. From March 17 to 18, the funds going north had a net inflow for 2 consecutive days, and the panic selling came to an end temporarily.
feature IV
market is more active
high turnover stocks increased significantly
With the entry of various funds into the market and the gradual opening of A-Shares to the outside world, the number of A-share investors has entered the era of 200 million + and the whole market is more active.
On March 15, the median turnover rate of A-Shares was 3.02%, and the median turnover rates of the previous two stages were 1.29% and 2.13% respectively. Among them, the number of shares with high turnover rate (more than 5%) accounted for nearly 26%, only 7.79% on October 28, 2008 and less than 17% on May 11, 2017; The number of shares with low turnover rate (less than 2%) decreased significantly, accounting for less than 30%. The number accounted for nearly 70% on October 28, 2008 and about 45% on May 11, 2017.
feature V
mechanism control degree is lower than that in mid-2008
over the end of 2016
Institutions are regarded as “market weathervanes”, and the high shareholding ratio of institutions means that the company is more attractive. According to the institutional shareholding in the recent reporting period at three time points (the data of the first and third quarterly reports may be incomplete, taking the data of the interim report and the annual report, which are the interim report of 2008, the annual report of 2016 and the interim report of 2021 respectively), the institutional shareholding ratio (weighted average) was the highest in 2008, close to 18%, and the institutional shareholding ratio was more than 9% in 2021.
Compared with the 2016 annual report, the mid-term report institutions in 2021 have a higher degree of control over the market. The number of stocks with an institutional shareholding ratio of more than 10% accounts for more than 40%, and the number of stocks with an institutional shareholding ratio of more than 30% accounts for nearly 9%, 4.46 percentage points higher than that at the end of 2016.
feature VI
bull market flag bearer force
main capital net inflow into securities companies in advance
Under the background of sector rotation acceleration, the sharp rise of brokerage stocks is relatively rare in the history of a shares.
Before the market bottom or bull market comes, securities stocks are often the pioneer of rebound. The securities sector took the lead, with a significant net inflow of main funds, showing the same characteristics on May 11, 2017 and March 15, 2022.
On October 28, 2008, the stock index soared by 6.81%, outperforming the Shanghai stock index by 4 percentage points; As of May 11, 2017, the net inflow of main funds into the securities sector in recent 5 days was 1.342 billion yuan; On March 15, 2022, the securities index slightly outperformed the Shanghai stock index, with an increase of more than 6% the next day. The net inflow of main funds was nearly 4 billion yuan, ranking first in the industry.
feature VII
more means to rescue the market
increase in holdings, repurchase, self purchase funds, etc.
On October 16, 2007, the Shanghai stock index created a myth of 6124 points. By October 28, 2008, the Shanghai stock index had only corrected more than 70% in one year; From the stage high on April 7, 2017 to May 11 of that year, the callback was more than 8%; From September 14 last year to March 15, 2022, the high point to low point retreated by nearly 20%.
With the sharp correction, investor confidence has been hit, and the rescue of the market is always accompanied by the sharp decline of the market. Under different market backgrounds, in 2008, 2017 and 2022, except for increasing holdings and repurchase, the rescue strategies are all different.
In September 2008, the management launched market rescue measures, including “encouraging major shareholders of state-owned enterprises to repurchase company shares, changing transaction stamp tax from two-way collection to unilateral collection by sellers”, and “four trillion plan”; From May 11 to June 9, 2017, listed companies repurchased more than 500 million yuan, increased their holdings by nearly 4 billion, increased opening to the outside world, and included A-Shares in MSCI.
In March 2022, several central enterprises repurchased or increased their holdings, including China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , etc. According to the statistics of databao, since March, listed companies have repurchased more than 7.5 billion yuan in total, issued more than 30 share increase plans, and completed the increase of three shares, including Ue Furniture Co.Ltd(603600) etc; Public fund managers purchase their own funds. On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market problems The meeting stressed that relevant departments should earnestly assume their responsibilities, actively introduce policies conducive to the market and prudently introduce contractionary policies
feature VIII
first released operating data from January to February to boost market confidence
In addition to the above rescue measures, many companies showed their muscles in March and released the business data from January to February of the year for the first time. Some companies also released orders and contract amounts to boost market confidence.
Data treasure incomplete statistics (from the data disclosed by the company), more than 50 companies released the results of the first two months, and the chemical, food and beverage, electronics, medicine and biology industries gathered together, with more than 5 shares. The performance of 36 shares that released net profit was very bright. The net profit in the first two months increased by more than 20% year-on-year, with 21 doubled shares, Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Top Resource Conservation & Environment Corp(300332) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) increasing by more than 10 times. Some companies overfulfilled last year’s performance in only two months, such as Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , etc Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) , etc. hold large and huge orders, and the production and sales momentum is good.
The average decline in the average of more than 50 stocks since the march on the average of more than 50 shares since the march on the average of more than 50 shares since the average decline since the march on the average since the march on the March is better than that of the Shanghai index. The average decline in the average of the average of the average of the more than the average of the more than the average of the average of the average of the march on the march on the average of the more than a better than the average decline of the average of the more than a better than the Shanghai index, and the average of seven stocks such as 4566 over10%, Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) company’s revenue from January to February was 20.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) 1 to February, the net profit was 105 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 241.35%.
stop falling and stabilize or oversold rebound
institutions: undervaluation is the main line, and it is expected to rebound in the short term
When things reach their extremes, Buffett, the stock god, once said, “I’m greedy when others are afraid, and I’m afraid when others are greedy”. According to the above data, history is always staged in different ways. At the same time, there are more favorable aspects for the market and investors, such as the pursuit of A-Shares by foreign capital and leveraged funds, and the significant increase of market activity.
from March 16 to 18, the Shanghai composite index rebounded by 6.11%, which belongs to oversold rebound or stop falling and stabilize
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief economist Xun Yugen believes that the CSI 300 has experienced five rounds of decline. Referring to history, the time and space of this adjustment has been significant, and the market valuation is at a medium low level since 2013. At the same time, there is little negative feedback pressure on funds, the proportion of leveraged funds is not high, the net redemption of funds is not obvious, and the funds going north will flow out in the short term, but will still flow in the medium and long term.
Cathay Pacific Juan Securities believes that the core of the sharp decline in the A-share market is that investors have moved from pricing “inflation” to pricing “stagflation”, and geopolitical disturbance has only accelerated this process. It is expected to rebound in the short term, but it will take a long time for market confidence to rebuild. After the short-term oversold and storm mode, A-Shares are expected to enter a phased rebound. However, before the demand side policy and the path of credit easing are fully clear, we believe that the pattern of declining investor profit expectations and rising discount rate expectations is still difficult to reverse in the short term, and it will take time to rebuild market confidence and optimize the micro trading structure.
