\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Profit elasticity is expected to gradually appear under high-end
We expect that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.166 billion yuan, 1.430 billion yuan and 1.640 billion yuan, with EPS of 241, 2.95 and 3.39 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 22.6% and 14.7%. The current stock price corresponds to 48.4, 39.5 and 34.4 times PE from 2021 to 2023. Wusu, 1664 and other high-end products continue to be nationalized, with obvious competitive advantages, profit elasticity is expected to gradually appear, and “buy” rating is given for the first time.
Intensive cultivation of the Chinese market, the company jumped to the fifth largest beer leader
The Chinese market is the core market for Carlsberg to maintain growth. Carlsberg has achieved high-quality growth of beer business through management empowerment, brand remodeling, structural upgrading and other measures. After the re integration of Carlsberg’s China beer business, the company jumped to the fifth largest beer leader in China (sales caliber). At present, the company has established a “6 + 6” brand combination and cultivated Wusu, 1664, Lebao and other brands with national potential, as well as local brands with distinctive characteristics such as Fenghua XueYue and jinga. Each brand embraces and binds specific and differentiated consumption scenarios to meet diversified needs with a rich brand portfolio.
The high-end Wusu and 1664 are highly competitive and continue to be nationalized
The company has stronger brand marketing and brand combination building ability, focuses on high-end products and continues to promote the nationalization of Wusu and 1664. Among them, Wusu is positioned as high-end, bound with catering scenes such as barbecue. The brand positioning above the hard core is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and word-of-mouth marketing is successful. Under the high brand potential, the self ordering rate of consumers is high. In the long run, Wusu is expected to become a high-end single product of more than one million tons after Budweiser classic and Chunsheng series. 1664 is positioned as a super high-end and female consumer group. The super high-end market has higher requirements for brand power and product power, and the pattern is good. With the increase of female alcohol consumption penetration, 1664 is expected to benchmark Rio to become another single product.
Big cities plan and actively expand production to support the process of nationalization
The separation of beer regional market is one of the essential characteristics of beer business. In terms of market, the company takes Wusu and 1664 as the starting point to cut into the high-end beer market in big cities, constantly improve the channel network and introduce more brand combinations. In terms of production capacity, the company actively arranged the production capacity of Guangdong and Jiangsu, optimized the production capacity layout, improved economies of scale and operation efficiency, and supported the nationalization process of Wusu, 1664 and other brands.
Risk tip: the risk of continued weak catering demand, rapid rise in costs and intensified competition
