\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
Event: on March 16, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 1.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.60%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 244 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.77%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 234 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.87%.
Covid-19 vaccination run put pressure on performance, and Q4 vaccination was limited. In 2021, the company’s income from varicella vaccine reached 1.02 billion (year-on-year – 7.86%, the same below), accounting for 85%. The revenue of nasal spray influenza vaccine was 175 million (- 47.52%), accounting for 15%. Quarter by quarter, Q4 achieved a revenue of 257 million yuan (- 33%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 11 million yuan (- 86.16%). Since covid-19 vaccine began mass vaccination in 2021q2, covid-19 vaccination for 3-17 years old was further promoted in Q4, resulting in a large run of terminal medical resources, affecting the company’s routine vaccine, especially the vaccination of nasal spray influenza vaccine. As the validity period of nasal spray influenza is only 10 months, the company has withdrawn 86.39 million yuan of asset impairment provision, which further affects the current performance. We expect that with the normalization of covid-19 vaccination and the gradual achievement of mass immunization coverage, routine vaccination will be gradually resumed.
Under covid-19 run, the sales rate decreased and the R & D expenditure increased significantly. In 2021, the company’s sales expense was 453 million yuan (- 21.59%), and the sales rate was 37.69% (- 2.40pp), which was mainly due to certain restrictions on the promotion of conventional vaccines, especially influenza vaccines in the CDC; The management fee is 108 million yuan (- 9.27%), and the management rate is 9.02% (+ 0.73pp); Financial rate -0.93% (-1.17pp). In addition, the R & D cost was 157 million yuan (+ 67.91%), and the R & D cost rate was 13.04% (+ 6.56pp), which was mainly due to the completion of pilot study of all human anti rabies monoclonal antibody and process research of all human tetanus monoclonal antibody. 21. The ending balance of accounts receivable and notes receivable of the company totaled 764 million yuan, accounting for 63.55% of the revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 12.69pp. In the past 21 years, CDC and others focused on the vaccination of covid-19 vaccine, and the collection of conventional vaccine was delayed.
Herpes zoster has completed phase III clinical site work and prepared for production declaration. Herpes zoster vaccine is the largest single vaccine in the world. GSK’s live attenuated vaccine with blisters has sold for 2.5 billion US dollars in 20 years. In the context of deepening aging, with the increase of affordability and vaccination rate, we expect the market scale of herpes zoster vaccine in China to reach 9.6 billion in 2025. At present, only GSK is available in China in 2020, and Baike is expected to be listed in 2022, which is expected to win the first place among domestic manufacturers, with sales of ~ 3.4 billion in 2025
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: referring to the company’s performance in 2021, we expect the company’s operating revenue to be RMB 2.052 billion, RMB 2.569 billion and RMB 3.205 billion respectively from 2022 to 2024 (the value before 202223 forecast is RMB 2.201 billion and RMB 3.190 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 70.70%, 25.18% and 24.76%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 591 million yuan, 730 million yuan and 902 million yuan respectively (the predicted value before 202223 was 651 million yuan and 957 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 142.58%, 23.54% and 23.60%. As the leader of chickenpox vaccine, the company is expected to resume large-scale nasal spray influenza. Herpes zoster is about to report production, contributing a considerable increment and maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the R & D progress is lower than the expected risk, the sales of vaccine products do not meet the expected risk, and the risk of negative events in the vaccine industry; Covid-19 virus mutation leads to the risk of vaccine failure; The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
