\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 036 China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) )
In the early stage, the performance express of 2021 has been disclosed, and the growth rate of revenue and net profit has increased month on month. In 2021, the annual revenue was 331.25 billion yuan (+ 14.04%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 119.92 billion yuan (+ 23.2%). In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 79.84 billion yuan (+ 15.6%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 26.31 billion yuan (+ 26.8%).
In 2021, the big wealth management business grew rapidly, and the handling fee of big wealth management increased by 33.9%. In 2021, the company implemented the 3.0 model of “big wealth management, digital operation and open integration”, with 173 million retail customers and 10.76 trillion yuan of retail AUM under management at the end of the period, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% and 20.3% respectively. Among them, the number of private bank customers and AUM were 122000 and 3.39 trillion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 22.1% and 22.3% respectively. The customer base was further optimized. In 2021, the handling fees of big wealth management business (wealth management + asset management + custody handling fees) increased by 33.9% year-on-year, accounting for 15.7% of revenue.
Deposits increased sharply and the net interest margin stabilized. In 2021, deposits increased by 12.8% and loans increased by 10.8%. When the pressure of attracting deposits in the industry increases, CMB’s deposits have achieved high growth, which further reflects the company’s advantages in wealth management. In 2021, the company’s net interest margin was 2.48%, unchanged month on month, only slightly narrowed by 1bps year-on-year. In 2021, LPR decreased for many times, resulting in the decline of loan yield by 15bps. However, the company increased its efforts to solicit deposits, actively optimized the asset liability structure, and the debt end cost decreased by 14bps.
The asset quality is excellent, the housing related risk exposure is small, and the risk is controllable. In the fourth quarter, the double downward trend of non-performing continued. The non-performing rate at the end of the period was 0.91%, a decrease of 2bps compared with the end of September, and the non-performing balance decreased by 0.9% compared with the end of September. The attention rate at the end of the period was 0.84%, an increase of 14bps compared with the end of June, mainly because the company advanced the overdue time point of credit card loans by one account day according to regulatory requirements. In the field of real estate, at the end of the period, the balance of the company’s housing related business with credit risk was 511.5 billion yuan, and the balance of the business without credit risk was 412.1 billion yuan, with a total ratio to the total assets of 9.4%, including 356 billion yuan of housing related corporate loans, accounting for 6.8% of the total loans. At the end of the period, the non-performing ratio of real estate corporate loans was 1.41%, and the proportion of non-performing balance was 7.21%.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic situation is repeated, and the steady growth policy is less than expected, resulting in less than expected economic recovery; 2、
The development trend of wealth management business is less than expected.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the “overweight” rating.
The wealth management and housing related non-performing loans disclosed in the annual report were slightly better than expected. We raised the profit forecast, and predicted that the net profit in 20222024 would be 139.4/159.9/184.1 billion yuan (the previous forecast was 138.5/158 billion yuan in 20222023), corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 16.2% / 14.7% / 15.1%, corresponding to diluted EPS of 5.38/6.20/7.16 yuan, and the dynamic Pb corresponding to the current stock price was 1.42x/1.26x/1.10x. Big wealth management and financial technology will deepen the retail moat. The short-term wealth management business is dragged down by the poor capital market, but the long-term development space is broad and the long-term investment value is prominent. Maintain the “overweight” rating in 2022
