\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 153 Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) )
China’s leading supply chain business
The supply chain business has developed steadily and its scale is leading in the country. Starting from port trade, supply chain business has gradually expanded into a comprehensive service integrating trade, information, logistics and finance. From 2000 to 2020, the revenue of supply chain business increased by 70 times, with an annual growth rate of 24%, achieving positive growth every year. In 2010, after the supply chain business income level centralization group, China Railway Materials Company Limited(000927) , Minmetals Development Co.Ltd(600058) , COFCO group, it has achieved national leadership in the first three quarters of 2021. Behind the steady and rapid development of supply chain business are the resource advantages of state-owned enterprises, market-oriented management mechanism, aggressive management team and steady business style. The company gives full play to the advantages of large procurement scale, low financing cost, fast turnover speed and strong risk control ability, and continues to increase market share in the fluctuation of commodity prices. The supply chain business is always strong. The scale and efficiency of the company form a virtuous circle and is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in the future.
The real estate market share is rising rapidly
The real estate business has moved from the middle of the industry to the top. From 2000 to 2020, the real estate business income increased by 711 times, with an annual growth rate of 39%, much higher than the growth rate of national real estate sales in the same period. It is estimated that the market share of the equity sales of Jianfa real estate will increase from 0.26% to 0.79% in 20172021. The company’s real estate business has moved from Xiamen to the whole country and is widely distributed in major coastal cities in China. According to Kerui’s statistics, the total equity sales of Jianfa real estate and Lianfa group in 2021 was 179.3 billion yuan, ranking 12th in the industry; From January to February 2022, the total equity sales was 18.1 billion yuan, ranking sixth in the industry. In the middle of 2021, all the core debt indicators of the real estate business reached the standard. Considering the strong development ability of the company, the share of real estate business is expected to continue to increase, and the sales amount is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
Head company, the value is expected to be revalued
Supply chain and real estate business are at the head of the industry, and the value is expected to be revalued. The supply chain advance service leads to a large amount of receivables. The market is worried about credit risk, and the supply chain business is valued according to the banking industry. However, as the industry leader, the company has experienced various external crises and has a good business record of more than 20 years, indicating that the risk is small. Moreover, the supply chain business continues to grow rapidly and should enjoy higher valuation. The scale of real estate business ranks in the forefront of the industry and has strong financial strength. We can refer to the valuation of state-owned enterprises in the industry and give a certain valuation premium in consideration of growth. In addition, we estimate that the discounted value of the existing primary land development projects is about 2.2 billion yuan, and the reduction of Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) equity can generate a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 1 billion yuan. Overall, the value of Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) is expected to be revalued.
Risk tip: the risk of commodity price decline, the risk of increased bad debts of receivables, the risk of real estate sales decline and price decline, and the risk of exchange rate and interest rate fluctuation. The calculation contains many assumptions and is for reference only.
