\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 803 Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) )
Event:
The company announced its annual report for 2021, which realized an operating revenue of 115.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.58%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.67%; The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 3.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 170.53%.
Comments
In the 21st year, the revenue and performance increased by 31.58% / 94.67% respectively year-on-year
In terms of revenue scale, driven by the rising volume and price of natural gas business and the rapid growth of comprehensive energy business, the company’s revenue increased by 31.58% year-on-year; In terms of profit margin, under the suppression of upstream price increases and other factors, the gross profit margin decreased by 1.78 percentage points to 16.74%. In terms of performance, the annual net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 94.67% year-on-year, mainly due to (1) the annual net profit attributable to the parent company of natural gas direct sales and coal business was about 680 million yuan and 920 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 409% and 153%; (2) The disposal of associated companies Santos and Xinneng Phoenix increased the investment income by 220 / 90 million yuan year-on-year respectively; (3) The upstream price rise led to an increase in the income from changes in the fair value of derivatives business compared with the same period last year.
Gas sales: the retail gas volume in 21 years was + 15% year-on-year, and the direct sales gas volume was 3.4 times that of the same period last year
In terms of retail, by the end of 2021, the company had 17 new urban combustion projects, with a cumulative number of 252 projects, covering 124 million people, a year-on-year increase of + 10.6%. The annual retail volume of natural gas reached 25.27 billion m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.1%, of which industrial and commercial gas sales and residential gas sales were + 17.9% and + 12.4% respectively, with a ratio of about 8:2. In terms of customer development, the company newly developed 2.62 million household users and 25000 industrial and commercial users throughout the year (corresponding to the daily design gas supply of the installed unit of 21.036 million m3). In terms of direct selling gas, based on the huge downstream customer base and the stable processing capacity of Zhoushan terminal, the company’s direct selling gas business grew rapidly, with the annual direct selling gas volume reaching 4.1 billion m3, 3.4 times that of the same period last year. In terms of gas source, in 2021, the company acquired nearly 500 million cubic meters of unconventional resources, 5 million tons of international resources and 1.5 million tons / year of resources. In addition, it also started the placement of Xinao Zhoushan LNG terminal. In the future, the gas source structure will be more diversified, which is conducive to reducing the cost of gas source.
Comprehensive energy: the growth trend is strong, and the sales volume in 2021 is + 58.3% year-on-year
In terms of comprehensive energy business, the company put 31 projects into operation during the year, with a total of 150 projects in operation. The sales volume of comprehensive energy was 19.065 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of + 58.3%. There are also 42 projects under construction. After all of them are completed, the comprehensive energy demand is expected to reach 36 billion kwh. In addition, the company actively deployed distributed photovoltaic and energy storage business, and signed a contract for the installed capacity of 380mW during the year.
Profit forecast and Valuation: under the background of the continuous rise of the cost side of the gas source side, the company still achieved a high performance increase of 94.67% and strong performance toughness. The profit forecast is raised. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 4.814/54.556118 billion from 2022 to 2024 (the value was 4.51/5.25 billion from 22 to 23 years ago), and the corresponding PE is 8.9/7.9/7 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the downstream demand growth is less than expected, the upstream price rises more than expected, the expansion of direct gas business is less than expected, the expansion of comprehensive energy business is less than expected, and the acquisition of Zhoushan terminal is less than expected
