Industry update
Covid-19 epidemic continued to recur worldwide. From the end of December to the beginning of January, the number of new cases per week in the world exceeded the number of new cases during the peak period of the past three waves of epidemic. In the last week, more than 500000 new cases were added every day in the United States, and the number of new cases per day in European countries such as France, Britain, Spain and Switzerland exceeded 0.2% of the population.
The number of covid-19 inpatients in various countries has also increased accordingly, but the growth rate is less than that of new cases. The number of death cases and mortality of covid-19 patients in various countries remain at a low level and have not increased significantly.
The global vaccination rate has steadily increased to 58%, and the booster vaccination rate has increased significantly recently. The booster vaccination rate in Britain has reached 50%, and that in Europe and America has reached 20-30%.
The proportion of Omicron mutants continues to rise. At present, the proportion of Omicron in the world has risen to 25%. Omicron appeared first in Africa, accounting for more than 80%, of which South Africa accounts for more than 90%. The Omicron mutant in Hong Kong began to appear in November and continued to rise, accounting for more than 75% at present. The proportion of Omicron mutants in the United States and many European countries began to grow rapidly in mid December. At present, the proportion of Omicron mutants in the United Kingdom is more than 90%, and that in the United States and France is more than 80%.
In addition, scientists recently identified a covid-19 mutant strain b.1.640.2 with more mutations than Omicron. Viral genome analysis showed that the mutant had 46 nucleotide substitutions and 37 nucleotide deletions, resulting in 30 amino acid substitutions and 12 amino acid deletions. Among them, there are 14 amino acid substitutions (including e484k and n501y mutations) and 9 amino acid deletions in spike protein, which may have stronger immune escape and virus transmission.
Based on the above data, we believe that the emergence of mutant strains has brought great challenges to the prevention of covid-19 infection, which may be due to the enhancement of transmission and the weakening of vaccine protection, resulting in a significant increase in new cases. On the other hand, the treatment for covid-19 infection remains effective, so the death toll has not increased significantly.
On December 30, vv116 cooperated by Wangshan wangshui and Junshi was approved by EUA in Uzbekistan and entered the stage of clinical research and development in China. Azvudine, a real organism, has now entered phase III clinical practice, and 3CL protease inhibitors of Xiansheng pharmaceutical and Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300436) pharmaceutical in China are in preclinical research and development.
Based on the therapeutic mechanism, accessibility and economy of oral drugs, we continue to be optimistic about the application prospect of oral small molecule covid-19 drugs.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to four main epidemic lines: ① small molecule cdmo industrial chain and its upstream of fine chemicals; ② Other upstream supply chains related to covid-19, including suppliers of antigens, antibodies, enzymes, plasmids, etc; ③ Epidemic related innovative drug R & D enterprises; ④ Other epidemic related, such as vaccine R & D enterprises, covid-19 test kit suppliers and other anti epidemic equipment / consumables suppliers.
It is suggested to focus on: Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Kingsley biotechnology, etc.
Risk statement
Covid-19 epidemic development and change risk, product R & D data and progress are less than expected risk, product capacity and sales are less than expected risk, government orders are less than expected risk, policy risk, etc.
