Event: on January 7, the Civil Aviation Administration issued the civil aviation development plan for the 14th five year plan (hereinafter referred to as the "plan"), which is divided into recovery period and savings period (2021-2022), growth period and release period (2023-2025).
The scale of the industry has maintained a median single digit growth: in 2025, the passenger traffic volume of civil aviation will reach 930 million person times, and 17 million flights will be guaranteed. By 2021, China has 241 certified transport airports. The plan proposes that by 2025, the number of civil transport airports in China will reach more than 270, and the number of transport runways will be increased from 265 to 305. According to the plan, the passenger traffic volume of China's civil aviation will reach 930 million person times in 2025, and the compound growth rate of passenger traffic volume in 19-25 years will be 5.9%. At that time, China's per capita boarding rate will increase from 0.47 to 0.67; Civil aviation airports guarantee 17 million flights, with a compound growth rate of 6.5% in 19-25 years.
Improve the independent and controllable ability of air cargo network. The plan puts forward requirements for the independent controllability of air cargo. At present, Chinese aviation enterprises account for 33.8% of China's air cargo market, and the market share is expected to increase to more than 40% in 2025. The plan proposes to build a professional freight hub airport in Ezhou, Hubei Province during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and optimize and improve the freight facilities of comprehensive hub airports such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhengzhou. One belt, one road, is the world's largest passenger transport. 62 civil aviation countries are being launched in 2020. It is estimated that in 2025, the number of civil aviation flights in 70 or more countries will be 50.
Build innovative smart civil aviation, improve travel experience and accelerate the development of green civil aviation. The plan proposes that by 2025, ten million airports will fully realize the paperless whole process of passengers, the coverage rate of baggage tracking in the whole process will reach more than 90%, and the electronic rate of freight documents will exceed 80%. The convenience of civil aviation continues to improve. In 25 years, the bridge access rate of airports above 10 million level has reached 80%, the coverage rate of 60 minutes to transport airports from Prefecture and municipal administrative centers has increased from 74.8% to more than 80%, and the rail transit access rate of hub airports has increased from 68% to 80%. Carbon dioxide emission per ton kilometer will decrease from 0.928 kg in 2020 to 0.886 kg in 2025.
Investment strategy: during the "14th five year plan" period, the growth rate of aviation fleet is expected to be less than 6%, and the compound growth rate of demand is expected to be 5.9%. Civil aviation may usher in the improvement of supply and demand structure in the medium term; If the international line is liberalized at the end of the year 22, the daily utilization rate of aircraft will be effectively improved and the turnover efficiency will be greatly improved. At that time, the profitability of the airline company will have great room for improvement. Private airlines expanded significantly during the epidemic period. Through fine operation, it is expected to convert the fleet size and time resources into operating performance when the travel demand returns to normal. At the current time, we mainly recommend Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) and Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) . At the same time, we are also optimistic about the high performance elasticity of the three airlines in the recovery cycle.
Risk tip: the sharp decline in macroeconomic growth and the repeated epidemic in a large area have seriously affected travel demand and the safety operation risk of the aviation industry.
