The valuation of A-Shares is structurally undervalued. Compared with important global indexes, the valuation level of Hong Kong stock and A-share market is quite advantageous.
In the past week, the A-share market pulled back again, the Shanghai stock index once approached the integer mark of 3000 points, and the gem index broke through 2500 points again. The Hong Kong stock market fell even more. The Hang Seng index once approached the integer mark of 18000 points, a new low since 2013. With the continuous adjustment of the market, the valuation is also declining.
according to data treasure statistics, as of the latest, the P / B ratio of Hang Seng index is about 1 times and that of Shanghai index is 1.38 times, both at historic lows horizontal comparison shows that the P / B ratio of Hang Seng index is the lowest in the world’s major stock indexes, and the Shanghai stock index is the third lowest in the world. In terms of P / E ratio, the Hang Seng index ranks second from the bottom in the world, and the Shanghai composite index ranks third from the bottom in the world.
Hang Seng Index has the lowest price to book ratio in the world
On March 15, the Hang Seng Index fell nearly 6% to close at 18415 points, a new low in nearly a decade. On the same day, the Hang Seng Index closed at a price to book ratio of 0.88 times, which was a rare phenomenon in history. With the market rebounding in the second half of the week, the P / B ratio of Hang Seng Index has more than doubled, but it is still below 8% of the historical quantile horizontal comparison shows that among the world’s major stock indexes, the Hang Seng Index has a price to book ratio of 1.02 times, ranking the last in the world, slightly lower than the South Korean stock index, which is 1.04 times. The price to book ratio of the Shanghai index is less than 1.4 times, ranking the third lowest in the world
From the perspective of P / E ratio, the latest rolling P / E ratio of Hang Seng index is about 10 times, which is higher than that of Brazil stock index and ranks second to last in the world. The Shanghai composite index followed closely, with a rolling P / E ratio of less than 13 times, the third lowest in the world. At present, the highest valuation of major stock indexes in the world is basically in US stocks. The price to book ratio of the three major stock indexes of US stocks is more than 4 times, the price to earnings ratio is more than 20 times, and the price to earnings ratio of NASDAQ index is close to 32 times, the highest.
the price to book ratio of Shanghai stock index is at a record low
At present, the valuation of Shanghai stock index is attractive in the world and is also low in history. According to data treasure statistics, the latest price to book ratio quantile of Shanghai stock index is 6.24% of the whole history, which means that only 6.24% of trading days are lower than the latest valuation. The Shanghai index’s P / E quantile is below 13% of the whole history.
Compared with several large bottoms in the history of a shares, the current valuation also has strong support. The data show that the current price to book ratio of Shanghai stock index is lower than that of Shanghai stock index at 998 points and 1664 points, and there is little difference from that of 1849 points and 2440 points. In terms of P / E ratio, the current P / E ratio of Shanghai stock index is also lower than that of Shanghai stock index at 998 points and 1664 points, and slightly higher than that of 2440 points.
financial stock market earnings ratio is only half of US stocks
as an emerging market, the valuation of A-Shares is structurally undervalued. Data treasure statistics show that among the 11 wind primary industries, the P / E ratio of finance, energy, real estate, utilities and industry in A-Shares is lower than that of U.S. stocks among them, the real estate industry has a higher relative discount rate. The latest rolling P / E ratio of A-share real estate industry is about 12 times, while that of US stocks is more than 48 times. It should be noted that due to the particularity of the real estate industry, the P / E ratio of the A-share real estate industry may change dramatically. The discount of P / E ratio of A-share financial industry ranks second, with less than 7 times of A-share and more than 10 times of U.S. stock. Roughly speaking, the P / E ratio of A-share financial industry is only about half that of American stocks.
The P / E ratio of technology stocks is significantly higher than that of a shares. The data show that the P / E ratio of A-share information technology industry is close to 49 times and that of US stocks is more than 32 times; The price earnings ratio of A-share daily consumption industry is more than 48 times, and that of U.S. stocks is less than 26 times. In addition, the P / E ratio of industries such as medical care and optional consumption in the A-share market is also significantly higher than that of US stocks.
overall, the valuation of A-share technology consumer stocks with strong growth is higher than that of US stocks, but the valuation of traditional blue chips is lower than that of US stocks Bohai Securities believes that the expectation that the steady growth policy will promote the recovery of enterprise prosperity is relatively clear, and it is expected to bring the low point and rise of enterprise profits. The market panic and the venting process of risk aversion factors will probably bring low-level allocation opportunities within the year.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) believes that the meeting of the financial commission of the State Council, the “one bank, two sessions” and the statement of the Ministry of Finance on the reform of real estate tax are a set of policy combination and help to repair the pessimism of investors. After the “policy bottom” is proved, the market bottom is not too far away. The Shanghai index may form a relatively solid bottom near Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) 00 points, and A-Shares are expected to open a round of “oversold” rebound. On the one hand, the height and sustainability of the rebound depend on the sustainability of China’s care policies; On the other hand, it depends on peripheral factors such as the pace of the Fed’s table contraction and geographical relations industry configuration, from the perspective of “oversold” rebound, it is preferred to have more early decline and high performance β Growth sectors, such as “new energy and Electronics”; In addition, pay attention to the “real estate” that benefits from the postponement of the real estate tax reform pilot
