Company 9 (689009)
On the 9th, with the modularization and standardization of underlying technology and parts, the products continue to expand and become a platform company. Two wheeled vehicles, mowing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and ATV are expected to become new growth points of the company. The current time point mainly depends on the change of income.
Balance car & scooter: integrating technology and channels to reshape brand and supply chain
Balance car is the first major business of No. 9. Joining Xiaomi ecological chain + acquiring Segway are two important layouts for the company to develop balance car products, integrate technology and channels, and obtain support from supply chain, market and other aspects.
Electric scooter is the second fast-growing business of the company. With the relaxation of the right of way for electric scooters in Europe and America and the increasing efforts of sharing operators to launch shared scooters, it has grown rapidly since 2018.
Two wheeled vehicles: product cycle + channel expansion, leading the intellectualization of two wheeled vehicles
Two wheeled vehicles are expected to take over and become the company’s next fast-growing business. From the perspective of time dimension, the intelligent function of No. 9 is ahead of other enterprises. The product experience is different. Algorithms and sensors are the core technologies, which need to be adjusted according to the riders’ car habits.
From the perspective of profit model, OTA upgrades or changes the existing profit model. OTA’s profit depends on the stock user base and conversion rate. We expect that the payment proportion is expected to reach 60% in 2024, and OTA’s single vehicle revenue is expected to increase by 9.1, 19.8, 33.2 and 46.6 yuan in 21-24 years. OTA payment is a SaaS like business model, mainly software cost, with obvious scale effect, resulting in high gross profit margin and high net profit margin.
Build an Internet platform based organizational structure based on the technology platform
The company’s perceptual computing and other technologies based on Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) are applied to all product lines. The underlying technology is universal, and the downstream application scenarios can be continuously extended. Product No. 9 has the characteristics of multiple categories and decentralized downstream demand, which is suitable for the organizational structure of platform development.
On the 9th, multiple business divisions were established based on products, and R & D services were provided to all product lines. The company adopts an Internet like organizational structure to build a front, middle and rear desktop organizational structure to build a strong R & D middle platform. In terms of staffing, in 2019, the R & D team totaled 1004 people, accounting for 42% of the total number of employees of the company, and the R & D personnel of general technology accounted for half.
Mowing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and ATV are expected to become new growth points
On the 9th, it took the lead in launching borderless planning mowing. In 2020, the mowing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) market space will be about US $1 billion. Compared with the mowing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) products currently on sale, product No. 9 is more intelligent and has the advantage of cost performance. In terms of all terrain vehicles, the global market scale will be US $13 billion in 2020. On the 9th, the industry’s first hybrid engine was launched, with more power and greater torque, and the level of intelligence is ahead of its peers.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 10.29 billion, RMB 15.23 billion and RMB 21.13 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 71.5%, 47.9% and 38.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 530 million, RMB 1.05 billion and RMB 1.74 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 624%, 97% and 66%. We use segment valuation, traditional business (balance car, scooter, etc.): it is estimated that the contribution to the parent company’s net profit of 922 million yuan in 2022 will be given to pe35x, corresponding to the market value of 32.3 billion yuan. Growth business: it is estimated that the revenue in 2022 will be RMB 3.15 billion respectively, given to ps8x, with a corresponding market value of RMB 25.2 billion. We believe that the reasonable market value of No. 9 is 57.5 billion, corresponding to the stock price of 82.14 yuan / share. It is covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: industry policy risk, poor overseas market development, less than expected promotion of new products, and too fierce competition between two wheeled vehicles.
