Automotive industry tracking research
The growth rate increased significantly in February, and the first two months had a good start
According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in February 2022, China’s passenger car sales reached 1.487 million, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, achieving positive growth for the third consecutive month, and the growth rate was significantly higher than that of the previous month.
In terms of output, 1.534 million passenger cars were produced in February, a year-on-year increase of 32%.
From January to February 2022, the sales volume of passenger cars in China recorded 3.674 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. Among them, the sales volume of cars recorded 1.705 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%; SUV sales recorded 1.79 million, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%. From January to February, the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly year-on-year. We believe that on the one hand, the demand foundation is still stable, on the other hand, it also shows that the bottleneck of the supply chain is continuously improving. In general, the passenger car industry has a good development trend in 2022.
New energy vehicles continued to increase, and the penetration rate hit a new monthly record high
In terms of new energy vehicles, according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 334000 in February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 180%. In terms of classification, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles in February was 258000, a year-on-year increase of 160%, and the sales volume of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles was 75000, a year-on-year increase of 340%. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was about 765000, a year-on-year increase of 150%. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 604000, a year-on-year increase of 140%, and the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 160000, a year-on-year increase of 250%. The sales of plug-in hybrid models continued to soar, mainly driven by the sharp increase in the sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) super hybrid models. As more and more independent brand car companies launch plug-in hybrid models with super long endurance and low power and fuel consumption, we expect the total sales volume of subsequent plug-in hybrid models to maintain an ultra-high growth rate. In terms of penetration rate, according to the data of China Automobile Association, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 22.5% in February 2022, setting a new record for the monthly penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles.
The growth rate of independent brand automobile enterprises has been differentiated
In terms of auto enterprises, from January to February 2022, the growth rate of major independent brand manufacturers has been differentiated Byd Company Limited(002594) the sales volume increased by nearly 200% in the first two months, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in production capacity and the continuous hot sales of new energy models.
Independent brands such as SAIC passenger cars, GAC motor and Chery also recorded growth rates that surpassed the industry. The sales performance of Geely and great wall of independent brands in the first two months was average, mainly affected by the supply of some parts. Most of the mainstream joint venture car companies performed well. The sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen increased by 62% from January to February, and the sales volume of GAC Honda and GAC Toyota increased by more than 14% from January to February. The sales volume of Dongfeng Nissan from January to February increased by nearly 20% year-on-year, and that of Dongfeng Honda increased by about 15% year-on-year. In terms of new energy, in addition to Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla, Xiaopeng, ideal and other auto enterprises also recorded a high growth rate from January to February.
There are many short-term disturbance factors, and the secondary market is under pressure recently
Since the beginning of the year, the overall trend of the main automobile varieties in the Hong Kong stock market has been weak, while the main varieties have continued to decline since late February. In the short term, the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has significantly heated up market concerns: on the one hand, the price of raw materials has further increased, and the cost pressure of automobile enterprises continues to increase; On the other hand, concerns about the supply chain, especially chip supply, are rising again.
Investment strategy and focus on the company
We believe that the current trend of the main varieties of Hong Kong stock cars has fully responded to the adverse expectations of the market.
In the medium and long term, the core varieties of the industry are still expected to support the medium and long-term stock price trend with their strong sales and performance growth performance, as well as their outstanding advantages or potential in the field of new energy vehicles. Maintain an industry rating that outperforms the market. It is suggested to focus on Byd Company Limited(002594) shares (01211. HK), Geely Automobile (00175. HK), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (02333. HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (02238. HK).
(Note: the above data are from the announcement of China Automobile Industry Association, China passenger Federation, listed companies, wind, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) (Hong Kong) research department) risk tips
The demand of the automobile market has weakened, the industry competition has deteriorated, and the shortage of chips cannot be alleviated.
