The 2021 performance express of Listed Companies in the A-share market has been intensively released. At present, a number of pig breeding enterprises have announced performance forecasts. From the point of view of the overall profitability of pig enterprises, they are listed at a loss. Among them, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Luoniushan Co.Ltd(000735) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) are expected to lose more than 10 billion yuan in 2021, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and other enterprises are expected to lose more than 1 billion yuan. It is worth noting that under the situation of overall losses in the industry, institutions seem to be more keen on pig breeding. In the latest research information disclosed by Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) and Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , several top flow institutions such as Hillhouse capital, freshwater spring, GF fund and Harvest Fund are also included.
pig prices fell, raw material prices rose, and the performance of pig enterprises was poor
In fact, since the Spring Festival in 2022, pork consumption has entered the off-season. The sufficient supply of pigs has led to the continuous decline of pig prices. This round of pig cycle is in the downward stage.
The data show that after the Spring Festival in 2022, the pig price accelerated to around 12.5 yuan / kg, and the specific price of pig grain fell below 5:1. At the same time, the feed price increased again. The pig breeding industry fell into a double-sided squeeze of falling pig prices and rising raw material prices. The first half of 2022 is destined to be a more difficult "winter" for the industry. Since July 2021, the number of fertile sows began to decline month on month. Up to now, the range of capacity reduction has reached 5% - 6%,
(trend of average wholesale price of pork source: wind)
At the same time, the rising price of breeding feed has also pushed up the breeding cost of pig enterprises. In this regard, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) accepted the investigation of the organization and said that the rise in the price of feed raw materials is a problem that the whole breeding industry needs to face together. Compared with small and medium-sized farmers, large-scale breeding enterprises often have advantages in feed cost control. The company has actively taken measures to effectively control the feed cost by giving full play to the advantages of centralized collection of feed raw materials and feed nutrition formula technology, increasing the use scale of advantageous raw materials. It is reported that the production cost of pig feed in Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 2022 increased by about 5% year-on-year from January to February.
Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co.Ltd(605296) company also said that the rise of raw material prices will have an adverse impact on feed sales, but the gross profit margin of feed sales will remain relatively stable. Because with the rise of the price of raw materials, the terminal products in the feed industry will increase the selling price to ensure their reasonable profits. At present, the main reason for the impact on the feed business is that the pig price is running at a low level. The increase in feed price will directly lead to the increase of pig breeding and marketing cost and increase the breeding loss, resulting in the reduction of feed purchase by farmers, thus affecting the development of feed business.
Under the downward trend of the industry as a whole, listed pig enterprises can not be better. According to the data, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) expects a loss of 18.2 billion yuan in 2021 Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) performance express showed a loss of 13.337 billion yuan New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) and other estimated losses are also more than 1 billion yuan.
performance runs counter to the stock price, and intensive institutional research
According to common sense, there is a relationship between the performance of listed companies and the stock price performance of the secondary market. However, it is worth mentioning that the secondary market performance of some pork listed enterprises does not seem to be affected. Taking Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) as an example, the stock of the company has rebounded up to 87% compared with the relative low in August last year. In addition, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) and other recent gains are not small.
( Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) rebounded 87% from the highest low point)
At the same time, institutions also seem to pay special attention to listed pig enterprises. Since March, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) and many other pig enterprises have received institutional attention.
On March 13, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) disclosed institutional research information, which showed that 107 institutions investigated the company on March 11, including head public offerings of GF fund, Harvest Fund and Huaxia Fund, as well as star investment institutions such as Gaoling capital and Danshui spring.
( Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) research activities)
Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 's research activities also attracted the participation of Harvest Fund, China Southern Fund, Tianhong fund, GF fund, Gaoyi assets, Danshui spring and Yingfeng capital.
This year, the frequency of institutional research on pork stocks has increased significantly. According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) has received 10 surveys from institutions, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) has received 5 surveys, Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) has received 4 surveys, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) has received 3 surveys; In terms of the number of research institutions, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) this year, a total of 294 institutions have conducted research on the company, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) 226 institutions have conducted research, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and other enterprises also have more than 100 institutions to conduct research.
institutions predict that the pig price in the second quarter may meet the inflection point
Guosheng Securities believes that the sharp decline in the production capacity of the non plague outbreak industry in 2018 promoted the surge in pig prices from 2019 to 2020, and the high profit promoted the rapid supplement of the industry. The stock of fertile sows increased to the peak in June 2021. Overcapacity led to the decline of pig prices. Fertile sows began to decline month on month since July 2021. It is expected that the industry will still face the peak of slaughter in the first quarter of 2022. The range of this round of deep losses and cycle length are greater than those in previous years, At present, it has entered the second stage of deep loss. The feed cost is high and the pig price is low. The capacity removal is expected to accelerate, and the pig price is expected to reverse in the second quarter of 2022.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) research shows that the pig supply in the market is expected to reach the peak in April and may 2022, and the pig supply will change significantly in the second half of 2022. Meanwhile, in early March 2022, the national development and Reform Commission launched the first round of collection and storage of frozen pork in 2022. It is expected to collect and store 40000 tons of frozen pork this time. The central collection and storage is difficult to change the trend of pig price, but it can boost market confidence to a certain extent and form the bottom range of pig price. Pig prices essentially depend on the relationship between supply and demand in the market. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the degree of capacity removal of the industry before the inflection point of the cycle.
