If the average oil price rises to $100 / barrel this year, even if the increase in shale oil production can alleviate the pressure of insufficient supply and residents’ income consumption, the economic growth will be halved to 1.5%, and may be close to recession in 2023 (after the oil price growth exceeds 50%, the economy will be in an obvious downward trend and fall into recession in 18 months at the latest). If the average oil price further rises above $120 this year, the US economy may decelerate sharply to close to recession in 2022, rather than wait until 2023.
Risk tip: shale oil production was lower than expected, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was higher than expected, and OPEC production was lower than expected
