This week, the international crude oil price showed a large periodic decline, with a fluctuation range of 15-20 US dollars / barrel. This week, the average Brent price was 105.4 US dollars / barrel, down 12.8 US dollars from last week, and the average WTI price was 101.2 US dollars / barrel, down 13.1 US dollars from last week. The main reasons are: first, the easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, so the market’s expectation of the interruption of Russian crude oil export to Europe has eased; Second, the United States began to release the reserve crude oil, and the U.S. crude oil inventory began to increase in the short term, and the market expectation changed significantly. Recently, the national oil price has been corrected at a high level, and the cost pressure of refining and chemical companies directly purchasing crude oil as raw materials has been reduced. We are optimistic about the long-term competitiveness and high growth of private refining companies such as [ Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ], [ Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ], [ Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ].
Since the end of last year, with the production of multiple polysilicon units, the demand for trichlorosilane has been greatly boosted, and the price of trichlorosilane has risen to more than 22000 yuan / ton. The production of new polysilicon units and the daily chlorine supplement of stock capacity will greatly increase the demand for trichlorosilane. However, the supply of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane has hardly increased this year. We are optimistic about the high prospect of trichlorosilane industry under the continuous investment of polysilicon capacity in the future. Biodiesel is the most beneficial product in the context of the continuous sharp rise in international crude oil prices. Due to the carbon reduction in Europe and other countries around the world, China’s biodiesel with waste oil as raw material is more supported by relevant policies in Europe, and it is expected to replace biodiesel with palm oil and soybean oil in the European market in the future, which has a huge market space. Despite the recent signing of the potassium fertilizer contract, although the signing price is the highest $590 / ton in recent years, the negotiated price of potassium fertilizer is still in a global historical depression. Considering the tight supply and demand of global potassium fertilizer and geopolitical factors, we are still optimistic about the upward trend of potassium fertilizer price. At the same time, we are optimistic about the low-cost comparative advantage and competitiveness of coal chemical enterprises under the background of the continuous and substantial rise of international crude oil prices. In addition, in the current market environment, we strongly recommend [ Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) (tire) and other stocks.
Key data tracking
Price rise and fall: the top five increases in the price of chemical products this week are acetic acid (18.47%), butadiene (13.57%), MTBE (8.67%), ethyl acetate (6.38%) and monoammonium phosphate (5.50%); The top five chemical product prices fell this week were propylene (MTO method) (- 7.26%), propylene (PDH method) (- 7.26%), propylene (naphtha method) (- 7.26%), methanol (- 7.18%), PX (- 7.11%).
Rise and fall of price difference: the top five increases in price difference of chemical products this week are butyl acrylate (104.64%), nylon 7 chip (77.18%), nylon 6 chip (77.18%), ethylene oxide (57.69%) and POY (57.59%); Methanol (- 41.09%), PTA (- 31.55%), PMMA (- 27.48%), caprolactam (- 26.09%) and soft foam polyether (- 20.39%) were the top five in the price difference of chemical products this week.
Risk warning: the international crude oil price fluctuates sharply; Poor control of the overseas epidemic has led to a lower than expected recovery.
