\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 966 Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) )
Core conclusion
Event: the company released the announcement that the controlling shareholder (Linglong Group Co., Ltd.) plans to increase its holdings of the company's shares. The scale of this increase plan is 150 million yuan to 200 million yuan. There is no price range and the period is within 6 months. Before the implementation of this shareholding increase plan, the shares of Linglong group accounted for 42.50% of the total shares of the company.
The shareholding increase plan strengthens the company's confidence in future development, and the company's medium and long-term growth is stable. In early March, the company's application for non-public offering was approved by the CSRC, and the raised funds were intended to be used for the construction of Changchun factory. According to our calculation, the company's effective production capacity will exceed 90 million this year, and will maintain a production capacity growth of about 10 million each year in the future. The medium and long-term growth of the company will be supported, and the short-term bad will not change the long-term value.
Export sea freight shows a downward trend, and the company is expected to start construction and deliver goods better. Since February 2022, Shanghai's export container freight rate index SCFI has decreased for five consecutive weeks. The latest data on March 11 reported 4625 points, down 9.5% from the highest point in early January. China's export container freight rate index CCFI also showed a downward trend, with us west, US East and European routes respectively - 6.4%, - 7.5% and - 6.5% higher than the peak at the beginning of the year. In addition, according to the scheduled rate index of 17 liner companies on main routes counted by Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the average scheduled rate in February was 24.3%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.4 percentage points. From the perspective of the scheduled rate of major ports in the United States, the scheduled rate of Los Angeles and Auckland ports in February were 11.6% and 16.0% respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 1.1 and + 11.2 percentage points respectively. On the whole, the current support for shipping charges of main routes has been loosened. In the first quarter, the tension of shipping containers in China and Southeast Asia tends to ease, and the operating rate of the company is expected to increase significantly compared with the fourth quarter of last year.
The price of raw materials tends to decline steadily, giving the company room to transmit costs to the downstream. At present, the cost of comprehensive raw materials in the industry is steadily decreasing. According to wind data, the average price of natural rubber, CIS polybutadiene rubber and carbon black 22q1 is 22q4 + 5.8%, - 7.2% and - 1.8% month on month respectively. The retail side, according to the tires official account, announced the price increase in March 7th. It will raise the price of 3%-5% for all brands of PCR and TBR in China's retail market starting April 1st. At the supporting end, the average prices of 21q4 natural rubber, styrene butadiene rubber and carbon black were + 0.4%, 17.0% and + 18.3% year-on-year respectively. The supporting price base of the company increased in 2022.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 997 / 1755 / 3004 million from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to the current PE of 30.8x/17.5x/10.2x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the project construction lags behind the expectation; Changes in tariff barrier policies; The price of raw materials fluctuates violently
