Seek one in change and one in motion
Cherish the policy window period in the first half of next year. With the gradual withdrawal of global monetary and fiscal policies, the global economy will return to the long-term center, but on the other hand, the overseas epidemic is still repeated for a long time, forming a pulse impact on the economy. In terms of inflation, the release of shale oil production capacity in the United States is still slow, the oil price center is easy to rise and difficult to fall, China's pig cycle is expected to pick up in the second half of the year, and the impact of inflation on monetary policy will gradually appear in the middle of the year. On the whole, the macro environment next year will be more unfavorable to the performance of the equity market than this year.
Don't ignore the medium and long-term impact of tight supply chain. From a medium and long-term perspective, the tense supply chain pattern after the epidemic has its inevitability. For a long time, under the background of rising global trade dependence, the division of labor among resource countries, producer countries and consumer countries has become increasingly complex, and the inventory relative to GDP levels of major economies such as China and the United States have decreased significantly, which also paves the way for the tension of the supply chain. From the historical experience of the earthquake in Japan and the flood in Thailand, the impact on the supply chain often has a far-reaching impact on the industrial structure. At present, only the high-tech industry most sensitive to the supply chain has been greatly impacted, and the risk of further transmission of supply chain tension to other traditional industries still exists in the future.
The price transmission of essential consumer goods will be the most deterministic direction. Historically, the rise of crude oil price has a significant transmission to Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price, which is mainly realized through two ways: 1) the rise of crude oil price drives up the cost of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) such as chemical fertilizer, and then drives up the price of staple grains such as rice, wheat and corn; 2) The upward price of crude oil pushes up the prices of fuel oil, chemical fiber and synthetic rubber, and transmits to fuel ethanol, cotton fabrics and natural rubber through the substitution effect, thus driving the upward price of corn, sugarcane, cotton and rubber.
What is the limit of boom investment. Since 2019, boom investments focusing on high profit growth expectations have achieved significant excess returns. The impact of the epidemic in 2020 has passively accelerated the switching pace of market profit expectations. By July this year, the profit expectations reflected by the market have been switched to 2022, and the recent market performance has reflected that some forward-looking investors have begun to price more long-term profit expectations. From the A-share profit forecast since the data are available, most industries predict that the hit rate of industry profits in the next two years is less than 50%. Too fast profit expectation switching will also bring more risks to boom investment.
？ Risk tip: the epidemic situation in developed economies has developed more than expected, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has tightened more than expected, and China's industrial regulation policy has exceeded expectations.
（ Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) ）
