\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 919 Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) )
Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) published the annual report for 2021 on March 16. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. Among them, 4q21 achieved a revenue and net profit of 450 million yuan and 80 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 34.7% and - 52.6% respectively. The overall performance is lower than expected.
Key points supporting rating
Affected by the epidemic, the performance in the fourth quarter of the year fell sharply, and the 21-year planning goal was not completed as scheduled. However, the contract liabilities of the company increased by 190 million yuan month on month at the end of the year, and it is expected that 1q22 will resume rapid growth. (1) According to the company's five-year plan, the company previously planned to achieve revenue of 2.1 billion yuan and deduct non net profit of 380 million yuan in 2021. The planning goal was not completed as scheduled due to the performance in the fourth quarter. In 2021, the company's contract liabilities were 360 million yuan, an increase of 190 million yuan month on month compared with 1-3q21, indicating that dealers have high enthusiasm for payment. We judge that demand has improved during the Spring Festival and is expected to resume rapid growth in the first quarter. (2) The company has increased consumer interaction and brand building. At the same time, the base number affected by the epidemic in 20 years is low, so the sales expense rate in 21 years has increased significantly year-on-year. In 2021, the company's expense rate during the period was 25.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3pct, of which the sales expense rate was 15.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7pct, and the management expense rate was 10.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6pct.
The company's product structure continued to improve, with products above 100 yuan accounting for 62.1%, an increase of 11.2pct year-on-year.
(1) in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.1 billion yuan for products above 100 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, and the proportion of revenue increased by 11.2pct to 62.1%. The company's 100300 yuan price band is mainly Century Golden Emblem 5-star, soft series and star series, and the income of this price band accounts for about 50%. More than 300 yuan mainly refers to the 18th and 28th year of the year series Golden Emblem. The terminal transaction prices are 468 yuan and 1180 yuan respectively. It is a company image product. At present, it has been introduced into the market outside the province, and the market feedback is good. (2) The company's product income of less than RMB 100 million was RMB 670 million, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%, which was mainly affected by the sluggish market economy of counties and towns in the province and the outflow of population. The company adopts stable price and quantity control for products within 100 yuan, consolidates the channel interest chain and implements in-depth distribution.
It is expected that the increase in Gansu Province and outside the province will be promoted in 22 years, which is expected to bring about a small and orderly market expansion in Gansu Province and outside the province. In 2021, the market revenue in the province was 1.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, and the market revenue outside the province was 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, accounting for 22.2% of the revenue, a year-on-year increase of 5.3pct. In 2021, the company had 589 dealers in total, including 323 dealers outside the province, with a year-on-year increase of 127. At present, the income outside the province is still dominated by the market around Gansu, Shaanxi is the key market, and Inner Mongolia and Qinghai are also the starting points in the future. Shanghai and Jiangsu sales companies have just completed the preparation in 2021. It is expected that market cultivation will still take time, and East China will gradually rise in the next two or three years.
Valuation
In 2021, the company's performance fluctuated greatly due to the epidemic. Considering that the epidemic still had a great interference on demand in 22 years, we lowered our previous profit forecast. It is expected that the EPS in 22-24 years will be 0.91, 1.17 and 1.44 yuan / share respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 41.6%, 28.8% and 23.1%. The implementation path of the company's five-year plan is clear, and the expansion outside the province is promoted in an orderly manner. We maintain the buy rating. Main risks of rating
Affected by the epidemic in Northwest China, the sales were less than expected. Market expansion in East China is blocked.
