Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ( Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ) event overview: the company issued the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 5.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 198.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.946 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase
Analysis and judgment:
The company’s performance is growing rapidly, and the production and sales of bivalent HPV vaccine are booming
The performance of the company increased rapidly in 2021. On the one hand, the production and sales of bivalent HPV vaccine continued to flourish, and the revenue and profit showed rapid growth; On the other hand, the company’s covid-19 raw material sales and overseas testing reagent export revenue achieved rapid growth. In 2021, the company actively carried out the publicity and popularization of HPV vaccination, cooperated with education departments, women’s federations, public health prevention and maternal and child health system, and continuously improved the awareness of professionals and the public about cervical cancer disease prevention by strengthening popular science education and professional training for key groups, taking the two needle advantages, prevention effect and international quality of the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine as the starting point, Help parents of school-age children and school-age women gradually establish the concept of “early vaccination and early benefit”, and constantly improve the market recognition of the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine. In 2021, the annual sales volume of bivalent HPV vaccine products exceeded 10 million, and the coverage of the target market was further improved.
According to the latest batch issuance data of 2022 released by the Chinese people’s Procuratorate, as of March 15, the company had issued 62 batches of bivalent HPV vaccine in total. It is speculated that the batch issuance volume is about 5-5.5 million, an increase of about 400% – 450% year-on-year. Considering the current situation that the supply of HPV vaccine in China is in short supply, the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine is currently in a state of booming production and marketing. The significant increase in the number of batches issued will help the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine business to increase rapidly.
Nine valent HPV vaccine is expected to become the first domestic product
According to the company’s announcement, the company’s nine valent HPV vaccine is currently undergoing phase III clinical trial, has completed enrollment and three injections in 2021, is undergoing observation and follow-up as planned, and the construction of production workshop is progressing smoothly as planned. According to the guiding principles of CDE, if there are HPV vaccine products listed with cancer as the clinical end point, other HPV vaccine products under development can take continuous infection as the clinical end point. At present, the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine has been successfully sold on the market. We believe that the company meets the relevant requirements of CDE. The probable rate of bivalent HPV vaccine will be declared for listing with continuous infection as the clinical end point, which will greatly shorten the time of clinical trial and speed up the progress of listing. We expect that the company’s nine valent HPV vaccine will be approved for listing at the end of 2024 or early 2025, becoming the first domestic nine valent HPV vaccine product.
Investment advice
Considering that China’s HPV vaccine is still in a state of imbalance between supply and demand, the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine will grow rapidly and in large quantities. We raised the company’s profit forecast from 2022 to 2023. From 2022 to 2023, the company’s operating revenue will be increased from 8.668/12.001 billion yuan to 9.684/13.035 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be increased from 3.134/4.802 billion yuan to 3.729/5.532 billion yuan. The profit forecast for 2024 is added. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2024 will be 15.771 billion yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 7.134 billion yuan. From 2022 to 2024, EPS was 6.14/9.11/11.75 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 84.5% / 48.4% / 29.0%, corresponding to the share price of 258.5 yuan / share on March 17, 2022, and PE was 42 / 28 / 22 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The company’s bivalent HPV vaccine sales are less than the expected risk; With the market competition of other domestic HPV vaccines in China, the risk of product price reduction is intensified; The sales of the company’s in vitro diagnosis business is less than the expected risk; The company’s vaccine research and development progress is less than the expected risk.
