\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Capstone Industrial Co.Ltd(000038) 16 Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) )
Event overview: the company released its 2021 annual report, and achieved an operating revenue of 80.679 billion yuan during the reporting period, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 9.733 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; Non net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was RMB 9.73 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.084 per share to all shareholders.
The performance of Taishan 1 was dragged down: affected by public opinion outside China, since the shutdown and maintenance of Taishan nuclear power unit 1 from July 30, 2021, the power generation from August to December has been reduced by about 6 billion kWh and the operating revenue has been reduced by about 2.3 billion yuan.
2h21 output increased as scheduled: as we previously predicted, although 1h21 missed the peak power consumption in Guangdong Province due to the maintenance of multiple units, the annual power growth can be expected with the recovery of output after the maintenance of each unit. Except for Taishan unit 1, the output of other units of the company was normal. The annual power generation of holding caliber increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the power generation of management caliber (included in Hongyanhe Nuclear Power) increased by 7.8% year-on-year. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of power generation under Q3 and Q4 management reached 10.0% and 10.7% respectively, exceeding the growth rate of national nuclear power generation of 0.2pct and 2.2pct in the same period.
Looking forward to the implementation of the world’s first planning goal: the company’s previously released medium and long-term development strategy and the 14th five year plan for the nuclear energy industry defines the planning goal of the world’s first total installed capacity of nuclear power in operation and construction in 2035, showing the strategic determination to focus on the main business of nuclear power. At present, Ningde phase III, Lufeng phase III, Fangchenggang phase III and other projects of the company have been submitted for approval, and the reserve and development of subsequent plant sites are expected to continue.
Investment suggestion: one of the main reasons why the company’s performance in 2021 is basically the same as that of the previous year is that Taishan unit 1 was shut down in advance due to public opinion and has been in maintenance. However, in the second half of the year, the company’s electricity performance was brilliant, exceeding the average value of the national nuclear power industry. Considering that it is difficult to determine the restart time of Taishan unit 1, adjust the profit forecast of the company. It is estimated that the EPS in 22 / 23 years will be 0.20/0.23 yuan respectively (the previous value is 0.23/0.24 yuan), and the EPS forecast value in 24 years will be 0.23 yuan, corresponding to the closing price PE on March 17, which is 13.6/12.2/11.9 times respectively. With reference to the company’s historical valuation and the valuation level of comparable companies in the same industry, the company was given a PE of 15 times in 22 years, with a target price of 3.00 yuan / share, and maintained the rating of “prudent recommendation” for the company.
Risk warning: 1) nuclear safety accident; 2) Policy changes; 3) New technology is blocked; 4) Electricity price adjustment; 5. Exchange losses.
