\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
Event: on March 17, the company disclosed in its 2021 annual report that the total operating revenue during the period was 1.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 244 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 41.77%, the basic EPS was 0.62 yuan, and the average roe was 9.37%.
Comments:
The low performance has been seen, and the impact of the epidemic on nasal spray influenza vaccination is temporary. According to the apparent data, the company’s revenue decreased by 16.6%, the profit fell sharply by 41.77%, and the performance fell significantly. However, we should see that it is mainly caused by the impact of the epidemic situation on the vaccination of nasal spray influenza vaccine, with two highly overlapped: first, the adaptive population is highly overlapped. Covid-19 vaccination for people aged 3-17 has been launched in all parts of the country in the second half of last year, which completely overlaps with the applicable population of nasal spray influenza vaccine of the company (aged 3-17); Second, the sales and vaccination time are highly coincident. The influenza vaccine sales and vaccination are basically all in the second half of the year. The two highly coincident factors led to the company’s sales of only Zhejiang Tiantai Xianghe Industrial Co.Ltd(603500) units after deducting the return, a decrease of 47.5% over 2020. At the same time, it also led to the impairment loss of 86 million yuan accrued by the company due to the scrapping of influenza vaccine. We believe that the impact of epidemic factors on nasal spray influenza vaccination last year has a certain historical particularity. The low performance has passed. Influenza vaccination is conducive to covid-19 epidemic prevention and control, and the probability rate will return to normal this year.
When a large variety of herpes zoster vaccine was ready for marketing, China’s R & D progress was the fastest. Herpes zoster vaccine has been fully clinical in phase III and is ready for production. There are only two kinds of herpes zoster vaccine products on the market in the world, namely mosadon Zostavax (live attenuated vaccine, one shot) and GlaxoSmithKline’s shinrix (recombinant subunit vaccine, 2 shots / person). From 2018 to 2019, GSK’s new recombinant herpes zoster virus vaccine achieved sales of US $1.047 billion and US $2.338 billion respectively in the two complete years after listing, ranking third in global vaccine sales (2019); Only GSK products are listed in China, and the cost of whole course vaccination at the latest bid price is 3216 yuan / person (2 needles). At present, China’s research enterprises include Shanghai Institute (entering phase III), Changchun Qijian and Dalian yalifeng. In addition to Shanghai Institute, several other approved clinical time are relatively late. The company is the Chinese enterprise with the fastest clinical progress. It has completed phase III clinical and entered the reporting production stage. The competitive environment is very relaxed. It is expected to be approved for listing in 2023. After listing, it will become one of the heavy varieties contributing profits to the company.
Profit forecast: without considering the listing of herpes zoster vaccine for the time being, we expect the company’s revenue to be 1.991 billion yuan, 2.289 billion yuan and 2.646 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 65.6%, 15.0% and 15.6% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 563 million yuan, 655 million yuan and 773 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 131.1%, 16.4% and 18.0% respectively. According to the previous closing price (44.30 yuan / share), the corresponding PE (2022e) is 32.5 times, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation in China affects vaccination; Increased competition; Product quality risk; The R & D progress is less than expected; Systemic risk.
