\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 198 Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) )
Matters:
Company announcement: in 2021, the company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of 4.577 billion yuan (+ 32.58%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.38 billion yuan (+ 44.74%), deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.290 billion yuan (+ 45.58%), and a profit growth rate of more than 30%, which is mainly due to the increase in the sales revenue of the company's medium and high-grade products.
Guoxin Food & Beverage's view: 1) the revenue of 2021q4 increased steadily, and the net profit was under short-term pressure due to the increase of expenses; 2) During the Spring Festival in 2022, the sales are bright, and the ecological cave is hiding continuously and rapidly; 3) Investment suggestion: taking advantage of the east wind of Anhui consumption upgrading, the company has sufficient potential energy of ecological Dongzang. The product upgrading has opened up the growth space of the company, and is optimistic about the potential energy of Dongzang brand to promote the steady growth of the company's performance. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.58/57.3/6.99 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.38/18.3/2.31 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 1.72/2.29/2.89 yuan, and the corresponding current share price PE will be 34 / 26 / 21x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Comments:
In 2021q4, the revenue increased steadily, and the net profit was under short-term pressure due to the increase of expenses
After calculation, 2021q4 company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 1.396 billion yuan (+ 14.27%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 418 million yuan (- 0.81%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 378 million yuan (- 5.50%); In addition, the net interest rate of the company in 2021 was 30.15% (+ 2.53pct), of which the net interest rate of 2021q4 was 29.94% (-4.55pct). The steady growth of revenue in 2021q4 confirms that the company's overall sales are good, mainly driven by medium and high-grade products. It is estimated that the revenue of medium and high-grade products will account for about 70% in 2021; The decline in net profit is mainly due to the increased promotion policy during the Spring Festival and the company's confirmation of more expenses. Looking forward to 2022, the net interest rate is still expected to rise steadily.
During the Spring Festival in 2022, the sales are bright, and the ecological cave is hiding continuously and rapidly
According to channel feedback, the collection and sales of Spring Festival in 2022 reached the best level in recent 2-3 years. There was a shortage in the province for a time, and the terminal replenishment was positive. At present, the inventory and price are still benign. The overall dynamic sales of Dongzang are relatively rapid, the successful large-scale growth of dong6 and dong9 continues, and the performance of Dong16 and dong20 is also good. The proportion of Dongzang series revenue is expected to be about 40% in 2021, and the proportion may be further increased in 2022. Relying on high channel profits, the company enhances the channel thrust, continues to promote the upgrading of product structure in the province and the investment promotion layout outside the province, and steadily improves the penetration and share in the province. In 2022, Jiangsu will strengthen the layout, and the market expansion is expected to accelerate. In the medium and long term, the potential energy of Dongzang is sufficient, and the performance growth of the company has strong certainty.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the potential energy of Dongzang brand, promote the steady growth of the company's performance, maintain the "buy" rating company, take advantage of the east wind of Anhui consumption upgrading, the ecological Dongzang has sufficient potential energy, and the product upgrading has opened up the growth space of the company. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.58/57.3/6.99 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.38/18.3/2.31 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 1.72/2.29/2.89 yuan, and the corresponding current share price PE will be 34 / 26 / 21x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuation, the risk of large-scale recurrence of the epidemic, the upgrading of product structure is less than the expected risk, and the regional expansion is less than the expected risk.
