\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
The annual report was issued with a year-on-year increase of RMB 1.28 billion, with a year-on-year increase of RMB 10.91 billion, and the net profit of 2021 was RMB 10.9 billion; Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.07%, in line with market expectations. Q4 has small profit elasticity. It is speculated that the company began to stop goods in October 2021, but the cost has not been reduced.
The performance continues to grow at a high speed, and “shede + Tuopai” two wheel drive. From the perspective of statement caliber, the revenue of medium and high-grade wine / low-grade wine / glass bottle in 2021 was 3.874703/357 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 82% / 219% / 7%. The significant high growth of low-grade wine was due to the large volume of Tuopai series; From the perspective of brand, it is estimated that the revenue of shede / Tuopai / super high-end / old wine accounts for 71% / 20% / 6% / 2%, including:
Shede series: it is expected to realize an income of about 3.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70%, of which taste / wisdom + crystal / the way of shede account for 60% / 25% / 15%. As the core brand of the company, the sub high-end upgrade and nationalization of shede have achieved remarkable results. In 2021, the price band of taste shede increased from 320 yuan to 380 yuan. Thanks to this consumption upgrade, the sales volume of crystal shede in some regions is even several times that of previous years.
Tuopai: 2021 will be the year of the revival of Tuopai. We speculate that Tuopai series will achieve revenue of 900-1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 260% +, of which core products (reprint, T68, liuliang, etc.) / old products (Centennial Tuopai, Gold Award Tuopai, etc.) / customized wine account for 50% / 18% / 32%. Tuopai has sufficient brand strength and customer base in the company’s advantageous market. At present, Tuopai’s new incentive and assessment measures have been put in place, With the follow-up of the supply side and the gradual spread of investment promotion, liuliang and customized wine are expected to become the biggest attraction in 2022.
Under the upgrading of secondary high-end, the gross profit margin is improved, and the cost is actively invested to maintain the brand potential. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s liquor decreased by 0.56pct year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of low-grade liquor with low gross profit, while the gross profit margin of all grades of liquor increased (the gross profit margin of medium and high-grade / low-grade liquor increased by 1.01/8.13pct year-on-year). In 2021, the sales expense rate decreased by 2.23pct year-on-year. We believe that it is mainly due to the scale effect. In absolute value, the marketing investment still increased by 63%, of which the salary of advertising / marketing personnel increased by 59% / 94% year-on-year. The brand power of being willing to be nationalized is gradually strengthened. At this time, it is the time to raise and fight high. In the future, the brand potential will be fully released and the profit side will be fully flexible.
Considerable payment collection and sound inventory provide guarantee for the performance in 2022. At the end of 2021, the company’s contractual liabilities reached a record high, reflecting the channel’s confidence in the brand of shede; The overall inventory of the company is not high, and the inventory of some channels is only 1 / 3 of that in the full inventory state, which is much better than that in the same period of last year. The seven national transit warehouses also ensure the supply of the whole country under the repeated epidemic (for example, although there is an epidemic in Tianjin, the delivery is not affected), and reduce the financial pressure of dealers.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: willing to end the year of management restructuring perfectly, with sufficient brand potential and controllable inventory pressure, the continuous high growth of 1q22 performance reflects the company’s ability to nationalize. With the channel mode of “platform operation + alliance store in store” and the gradual deepening of the concept of old wine, the high growth of the company’s performance is expected to continue. We maintain the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.866/2.483 billion in 202223, The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is predicted to be 3.205 billion yuan, and the current share price corresponds to 32 / 24 / 19 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic will reduce consumption intention, competition of secondary high-end Baijiu is intensified, and channel cost is not timely.
