\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 098 Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) )
Key investment points
According to the announcement, the company achieved a year-on-year growth of 4.6 billion yuan in 2021 and a year-on-year growth of 6.05 billion yuan in 2021 according to the announcement; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 171 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.1%. 2) 21q4 single quarter revenue was 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 61.69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%.
The volume and price of core training business increased simultaneously. In 2021, the company’s management training revenue was 490 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48.9% and a gross profit margin of 83.6%. The main products of the company’s training business are principal EMBA and concentrated EMBA. In terms of price, in September 2021, the company announced that the price of concentrated EMBA tuition was increased from 28800 to 35800, and the Course Scheduling in 2022 will enjoy the price increase bonus; In terms of volume, by the end of 2021, the company’s book contract liabilities were 780 million yuan, an increase of 20.1% compared with the end of 2020, indicating that the company’s scheduled courses showed an increasing trend.
Profit growth exceeded revenue growth, and costs and expenses were well controlled. 21q3, the year-on-year growth rate of the company’s revenue was 46.6%, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 60.1%, thanks to the company’s good cost control and expense control. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 79.1%, showing an upward trend; In terms of expenses, in 2021, the sales rate was 29%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points over the same period last year, and the rates of management and R & D expenses were 21.8% and 5.9% respectively.
The consulting business continued to advance, and multipolar development boosted performance. In 2021, the company’s management consulting business realized a revenue of 58.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 35%, and the gross profit margin was 44.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6 percentage points, mainly due to the low gross profit margin of the company’s business of hiring external consultants. In 2021, the proportion of external consultants increased, reducing the overall gross profit level.
Digital business school set sail and market development to a higher level. The company increased R & D investment and built Omo digital business school. In 2021, the R & D expense rate increased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. The company officially launched the mobile digital business school in late October 2021, independently developed the SaaS platform, and incubated middle-level cadres for enterprises through the general cloud project. By the end of 2021, the company’s digital business school has established cooperative relations with 100 enterprises.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 210 million yuan, 270 million yuan and 320 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 19 times, 15 times and 13 times respectively. The compound annual growth rate of the company’s net profit in the next three years is 24%, PEG 1, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the risk that the enrollment of principals, enrichment, online EMBA and other courses does not reach the expected number; 2) The risk that the revenue generated by the company’s salesperson is less than expected; 3) The risk of repeated course scheduling is less than expected.
