The next day after China Mobile’s listing, the stock price approached the issue price. Although there was no breaking trend in the stock price, referring to the trend of China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) , the breaking probability still exists in the future. This column believes that this is a normal phenomenon. After all, under the price comparison effect of Hong Kong stocks, large investors are more willing to buy Hong Kong stocks China Mobile.
On January 6, China Mobile’s share price was as low as 57.58 yuan, which was equivalent to the issue price. At 57.58 yuan, millions of hands paid the bill, strictly guarded against it, and finally promoted the share price to rise in the afternoon. However, the share price fell again before the closing, and finally closed at 58 yuan, only 0.42 yuan from the issue price of 57.58 yuan. The closing price of China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) on the same day was 4.3 yuan, breaking 0.23 yuan compared with the issue price of 4.53 yuan.
It must be admitted that China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) and China Mobile are both excellent enterprises in China and listed companies worthy of investment. However, they all have an inherent disadvantage, that is, there is a price comparison effect of Hong Kong stocks. For example, another excellent company Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) in China has a P / E ratio of only 5 times and a share price of 4.7 yuan, but its net assets are as high as 7.9 yuan, This valuation is obviously incomprehensible in the eyes of A-share investors, but because it also has Hong Kong shares in circulation, and the quotation there is HK $4.5, the share price of A-Shares Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) can not rise, which is reasonable logic.
For a simple example, many rich people buy luxury jewelry bags and so on. Obviously, they don’t need money, but they also want the tour guide to buy them from overseas. Why? Because foreign bags are cheaper. In fact, the stock is the same. The 58 yuan China Mobile itself has great investment value. However, because the Hong Kong stock market sells cheaper, large long-term funds are not willing to directly buy and hold A-Shares of China Mobile. The reason of others is also very simple. For the same stock, why give up the cheap one and have to buy the expensive one?
Investors may say that A-Shares of many companies are more expensive than Hong Kong stocks, but this is different. For small and medium-sized stocks, speculative funds can control the market and use the power of speculation to push up the stock price, but China Mobile can’t, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) can’t, Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) can’t. Anyone who dares to speculate on such super large cap stocks will “speculate into shareholders”, so they are bound to be affected by Hong Kong stocks. Unless the power of long-term investment is too strong, they can directly synchronize A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks, such as Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) . The stock prices of both sides are basically synchronized, but not A-Shares fall, but Hong Kong stocks rise.
Therefore, it is said in this column that although China Mobile has a large order to protect the stock price, it is difficult for China Mobile to do anything when the speculative investment force can not support the stock price, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) once failed to protect the stock price, and the stock price is still broken. Therefore, if China Mobile also falls below the issuing bank price in the future, investors need not be surprised. After all, China Mobile in Hong Kong stocks is much cheaper. For investors who are really optimistic about China Mobile, they don’t have to rush to buy above the issue price. If they are really optimistic about China Mobile, they can also consider buying Hong Kong stocks directly through Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect or Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect. For the same thing, it’s always good to be cheaper.
In the long run, the share prices of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares will tend to be consistent, which is an inevitable law for listed companies listed in many places, but the key problem is how to balance the two. This column believes that it is not ruled out that A-Shares rise slowly, Hong Kong shares rise faster, gradually narrow the price difference and finally achieve balance. However, for large blue chips such as China Mobile, the short-term high premium will bring arbitrage funds and prevent the entry of long-term buying of a shares.
(Beijing business daily)
