\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 876 Shenzhen Sunnypol Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(002876) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.3 billion yuan, an increase of 20.9% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 188.9%; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 300 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 218.9%.
TFT-LCD polarizer grew steadily and the profit margin increased significantly. 2021:1) revenue side: the operating revenue of TFT series / black-and-white series of the company was RMB 2.19 billion / 100 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 21.4% / 7.9% respectively, and the proportion of revenue was 95.2% / 4.5% respectively. 2) Profit side: thanks to the improvement of industry prosperity, the release of production capacity of Hefei production line and the start of mass production of Longgang production line, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 25.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6pp, of which the gross profit margin of TFT series / black-and-white series was 24.4% / 33.5% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8pp/2.9pp respectively; Thanks to strong downstream demand, full release of production capacity, effective cost management, RMB appreciation and other reasons, the company’s net interest rate was 15.4%, an increase of 9.1pp year-on-year. 3) Expense side: the company’s sales / management / R & D expense rates were 0.8% / 3.0% / 4.5% respectively, with a year-on-year increase (decrease) (0.7pp) / 0.6pp / (0.1pp).
The market share of the company’s mobile phone polarizer is the world’s leading. The company has continued to cultivate polarizers for more than ten years. At present, mobile polarizers account for more than 10% of the global market, ranking first among domestic manufacturers and third in the world. When the production capacity of Longgang line 6 climbs further in 2022, the production capacity of mobile phone polarizer will be further expanded. It is expected that the company’s mobile phone panel polarizer will maintain a strong position, and the market share is expected to surpass Samsung SDI to become the second in the world.
The company’s production capacity is about to accelerate the ramp up, and actively adjust the production capacity structure to enhance market competitiveness. According to the production capacity planning, the company’s Putian No. 7 / Hefei No. 8 (phase I) / Hefei No. 8 (phase II) will start the production capacity ramp up in 2022q3 / 2024q1 / 2025q1 respectively. At that time, the company will have one 650mm narrow width, two 1330mm wide width, four 1490mm wide width and two 2500mm ultra wide production lines. In terms of production capacity structure, the company currently focuses on small and medium-sized TVs and mobile phones, will focus on it within two years, and will focus on large-size TVs after two years. The company actively adjusts the production capacity structure and is expected to further improve its competitiveness under the trend of the transfer of polarizer industry to the mainland.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: from 2022 to 2024, the company’s revenue is expected to be RMB 3.50/51.9/7.22 billion respectively, with a corresponding year-on-year growth rate of 51.9% / 48.3% / 39.1% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.3/8.1/1.12 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding year-on-year growth rate of 56.7% / 52.4% / 38.6% respectively. Considering the company’s important position in China’s polarizer industry, excellent cost control ability and capacity structure adjustment and mobilization ability, we give the company 20 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 60.80 yuan. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the company’s production capacity is not climbing as expected; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Exchange rate fluctuation of yen against RMB; Overseas competitors have increased their investment in the Chinese market.
