Baijiu fund in 2020 after every act and every move was the dream of many investors. Therefore, the liquor base’s action is attracting much attention from the market.
Baijiu shares continued to rebound
Last December 28th, China’s largest equity fund merchants CSI Baijiu Index Fund issued a dividend announcement, the plan allocated 0.045 yuan for each fund share, which superimposed on the first, second dividends paid in September and December respectively. The total 3 dividends above have already exceeded 5 billion 500 million yuan. At the same time, the fund also announced the suspension of subscription and conversion from December 30. On the same day, Penghua Zhongzheng liquor index fund also issued the first dividend announcement of the year. After several announcements, Baijiu plate fell sharply, and the market interpreted it as “looking after the market.” Is that true? Not necessarily.
At the beginning of the new year, Baijiu was released, but the purchase was also held since January 4th. Among them, the limit of class A-Shares is 200000 yuan and that of class C shares is 100000 yuan. The background of the restriction is the continuous rising asset scale of the fund. The announcement shows that the scale of the Baijiu liquor business increased by 30% in the three quarter, and the single fund reached 84 billion 220 million yuan.
Looking back in 2021, although the plate trend is fluctuating, the structural market is characterized by obvious increase: the Wind Baijiu index has increased by 13.01% throughout the year, and the share price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has rebounded from 25% to Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) . Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) data show that the subdivision of the whole year is ranked as three line high end (+69.1%) > local liquor (+18.0%) > high-end liquor (-4.1%) > regional high end (- 6.2%). Among them, the third tier secondary high-end such as Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) achieved high elastic growth due to secondary high-end capacity expansion bonus + investment and distribution and cost adjustment, and the excess return was significant.
At the beginning of the new year, investors’ enthusiasm for bottom reading remained unabated, and the wine ETF continued to attract capital inflows, adding 308 million shares on January 4, just one step away from the record high. Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that considering that all leading enterprises have spare capacity at the statement end in 2021 and the current payment collection rhythm is good, it is expected that the upward trend of leading liquor enterprises in 2022 is clear, but it is still a structural opportunity.
fund manager
still optimistic about the future
While the sector continued to fluctuate, the valuation advantage gradually became prominent, and fund managers began to give investors a “psychological massage”, giving optimistic expectations for the future market.
Nord fund manager Gu Yu said Baijiu is a very special consumer segmentation industry. First, as a fast moving product, Baijiu has a high frequency of purchase, a high rate of repeat purchase, and a better model than durable consumer goods. Baijiu China is closely related to table culture and party customs. The relatively restrained character of Chinese people needs Baijiu to close their ties and add the “face” factor, so Baijiu has strong social attributes.
“Baijiu basically has no shelf life, so inventory will not be a problem; and the longer the Baijiu is kept, the more expensive the price, the function of maintaining value and increasing value, so it has the investment attribute.” Gu Yu said that from the business model, Baijiu enterprises generally have lighter assets and cash flow is good. From the perspective of competition pattern, brand barriers are very high. Compared with other consumer goods industries, there are no overseas competitors, and it is difficult for new brands to enter the market. At the same time, the price level of the industry is well differentiated, and the competition pattern is relatively stable. Therefore, Baijiu leading enterprises can get a stable growth rate and a higher valuation level.
Since 2015, with the transformation and recovery of China’s economy, business demand has gradually improved; Meanwhile, the rising per capita income level has brought about a long-term trend of consumption upgrading, and personal consumption has gradually become a major driving force for Baijiu industry. Liquor industry demand recovery, and industry differentiation is obvious, with brand, quality and marketing channel advantage Baijiu price rise, income and profits basically continued to new high.
Looking ahead, Gu Yu believes that the fundamentals of the Baijiu industry have been improving for a long time and there are still better structural investment opportunities, but investment risks still need to be paid attention to in the investment process.
Liu Guojiang, head of consumer group of the Ministry of investment and investment, said that Baijiu could be a good start for the Spring Festival, and the price volume continued to rise. Brand Baijiu company has sound operation and stable channel profits, and dealers will have strong desire to repay money in the new year. This is conducive to ensuring the revenue and profit of Baijiu company in the first quarter and even in the first half of the year. Although the outbreak may also be partial in 2022, the characteristics of Baijiu’s return and sale time are very helpful to the robustness of the quarterly reports of listed companies. Some companies’ strategy of raising prices also helps to raise the price of the Baijiu industry and create more room for other companies.
(Securities Times)
