Since 2014, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has produced a Chinese Zodiac wine every year.
on January 5, Maotai Liquor Co., Ltd. held a press conference on renyin Lunar New Year of the tiger. At the press conference, the Lunar New Year of the tiger wine was officially released, which attracted the attention of many “Maofen”. Among them, the market guide price of 53% vol 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (renyin year of the tiger) was 2499 yuan / bottle, which was the same as last year. However, it was reported that before that, some dealers had pre sold Maotai year of the Tiger Chinese Zodiac wine with a quotation of 5800 yuan, which was 132% higher than the guide price of 2499 yuan.
According to the official account of today’s wine price, as of January 5th, the market prices of Moutai’s ox year, rat year, pig year, dog year, chicken year, monkey year, sheep year and horse year were 3870 yuan, 4280 yuan, 4280 yuan, 4150 yuan, 4200 yuan, 6280 yuan, 32000 yuan and 19800 yuan respectively.
Maotai lunar new year tiger wine officially released
Specifically, there are four brands and five products of Maotai lunar new year wine, of which the market guide price of 53% vol 500ml Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of renyin tiger) is 2499 yuan / bottle, 53% vol 375ml x2 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) wine (year of renyin tiger) is 3599 yuan / bottle, 53% vol 500ml Maotai Prince wine (year of renyin tiger) is 988 yuan / bottle, 53% vol 2.5L Guizhou Daqu (year of renyin tiger) is 2888 yuan / bottle, 53% vol 500ml Lai Mao wine (renyin year of the tiger) is 988 yuan / bottle.
Since the launch of the year of the horse Chinese Zodiac commemorative wine for the first time in 2014, the release of Maotai Chinese Zodiac family products has attracted much market attention and attracted a lot of “Mao powder” rush to buy and collect. The launch of this year’s Lunar New Year wine is the ninth product of Maotai lunar new year wine, which is one step closer to the collection of a complete set of Maotai lunar new year wine in 2025.
some insiders believe that due to the great resistance to the price increase of Feitian Maotai, raising the price of non-standard products may be one of the important means for Maotai to improve its performance this year. It is reported that there are already dealers selling Maotai lunar new year tiger wine in advance, with a quotation of 5800 yuan, an increase of 132% compared with the guidance price of 2499 yuan.
Prior to this, some media reported that from January 1, 2022, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) also raised the price of two products, the new treasure Maotai liquor and the old Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor 15. The retail guide price of Maotai new treasures was raised by 100 yuan, from 4499 yuan to 4599 yuan; Maotai aged liquor 15 increased from 4999 to 5999 yuan.
It is worth noting that on the same day, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 2021 National Association of Maotai flavor liquor dealers was held in Guiyang. The meeting revealed that in 2021, the annual sales volume of Maotai flavor wine was 30000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; The revenue reached 11.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%; The total profit is expected to be 5.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%; The tax paid was 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69%. The main business indicators showed double-digit growth, reaching the best over the years.
“In 2021, the revenue of Maotai Maotai flavor series liquor exceeded 10 billion, which is not only a milestone, but also a new starting point.” Ding Xiongjun, chairman of the Moutai group Party committee and chairman of the Moutai liquor company, said that the Maotai flavor liquor series should strive to achieve double sales revenue at the end of 14th Five-Year, reaching over 24 billion yuan, accounting for over 10% of the group’s total value, and entering the second liquor camp of the National Baijiu group, and strive to enter the top eight Baijiu national liquor groups, becoming the main growth pole of the group’s development. Maotai Prince liquor and other products should become the pillar of the corresponding price belt.
prior to this, on December 31, 2021, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) also issued an announcement on the operation of production revenue in 2021, which is expected to achieve a revenue of about 109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.2%, or exceed the growth target of 10.5% at the beginning of the year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%.
institutions concern Baijiu stocks warming
Driven by the peak season of consumption at the end of the year, the concern of the Baijiu group represented by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has increased recently.
For example, on January 5, the institutional research report released 21 buying rating records, involving 17 stocks, of which Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) received the highest attention and received buying ratings from 5 institutions.
In addition, on January 5, JPMorgan also raised the ratings of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . Among them, JPMorgan raised its Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) rating to over allocation. The previous rating was neutral, with a target price of 300 yuan, or an increase of 21%; Similarly, JPMorgan also raised its Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rating from neutral to over allocation, with a target price of 270 yuan, or 21%.
from the perspective of institutional research trends, on December 29 last year, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) obtained collective on-site research from five fund companies, including Wells Fargo fund, huitianfu fund, Dacheng Fund, Jingshun Great Wall Fund and bocom Schroeder fund.
In the survey, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) said that in 2021, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the macroeconomic environment and the consumption climate and consumption habits, the Baijiu industry showed a trend of high and low levels throughout the year. In the first half of the year, the consumption demand of the epidemic situation was released to a certain extent, which was better than that of the same period last year. However, in the second half of the year, the dynamic sales of the industry entered the situation of continuous insufficient consumption. In the next five years, risks and opportunities still coexist for the industry. We should see both risks and opportunities.
NPC and CPPCC members have been holding a strong trend in the recent years. However, under the influence of the “two sessions” proposal, such as “luxury tax on Moutai” and the consumption tax reform, the stock prices of Baijiu and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) liquor stocks continue to be volatile in the near future. ” Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ” As of January 5th closing, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell 5.34% in nearly five trading days, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) fell 4.96%, and the CSI Baijiu index fell 6.4% overall.
fund managers: more optimistic about the Baijiu high-end plate
After nearly a year’s adjustment, has reduced the value of Baijiu plate considerably higher than the previous high point, for example, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ‘s current valuation is about 50.71 times, which has been callback compared to the estimated high point of nearly 70 times in February 2021. In addition, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) is about 58.63 times, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) valuation is less than 40 times. Many agencies believe that the current valuation of Baijiu has enough safety margin.
For example, Cheng Yuxuan, a fund manager of the China Europe Fund, believes that some of the Baijiu and other sub sectors have good business models and strong business vitality. The current odds and winning rates are good, some of which have long-term investment value.
Wu Yue, director of the research and consumption fund of the harvest fund, said that the Baijiu market will be completely different from the 2016~2019 market. No matter the macro factors, the operation cycle of the middle industry, and the whole policy environment, Baijiu is hard to drive a very obvious offensive market. He believes that in 2022, especially in the first half of the year, Baijiu is difficult to produce a comprehensive bull market, it should be a structural market.
In the whole Baijiu plate, he is relatively optimistic about the regional liquor and secondary high-end baijiu. “Chinese Baijiu is a typical vase structure, with two large middle parts and a middle high-end. In the future, Baijiu will be like most consumer products, and will change to the healthy consumption structure of Pyramid. If the product structure is transferred successfully, the whole high-end liquor will usher in a very obvious outbreak, and the growth of the whole price range in the next 3 years and 5 years will be obvious. It may be over 20%, and the growth rate of the leading companies may be maintained at 30% or 50%, which is a very clear growth track in the Baijiu industry.
Maotai should take the lead in raising prices again. Big brother, we should increase the budget for new year’s drinks! RMB 1000 for model year 15
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : Maotai valuation is still at a reasonably low level
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : slightly reduce the growth forecast of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) net profit in 2021 to 11.4%
(Securities Times)
