Macro view: 1. There is a trend change in the monetary and fiscal policy of the United States to deal with the epidemic. 2. In the past, the United States hedged the demand impact caused by the epidemic through monetary and fiscal policies, but the supply side impact has shown significant negative externalities and affected the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy. With the development of time and the epidemic, the US economic policy is expected to shift from stimulating demand in the past to stimulating supply recovery and curbing inflation. This new economic policy shift will be verified in this round of global covid-19 epidemic development, and will affect the changes in the global economic structure to a certain extent, which is mainly reflected in the impact of U.S. – driven liquidity and aggregate demand convergence. 2. During the epidemic cycle, China’s economic policy focuses on coping with overseas shocks, and takes this time window to accelerate the adjustment of China’s economic structure. With overseas shocks, especially the gradual weakening of inflation pressure driven by the United States, China’s economic policy will return to the long-term sustainable stability framework.
Market view: 1. Under the background of anti inflation in the United States and steady growth in China, the core asset style is established. China’s core assets have become the best choice for global asset allocation. 2. In the process of restoring stability of China’s real estate, long-term interest rates rise, commodities at the front of the real estate chain rise, and overseas commodities fall in the process of anti inflation in the United States.
Trading strategy: 1. Be optimistic about the CSI 300 index and A50 Index, and pay attention to the risk of beta and small and medium-sized stocks caused by style deviation. 2. 2. Optimistic about automotive intelligent hardware, food and beverage, real estate sector. 3. Optimistic about the repair of Hong Kong stock Internet Index and the long-term upward trend of Nasdaq 100.
Market resumption: A-Shares have maintained an upward trend as a whole this month. Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 had eye-catching performance in the whole month, while the Kechuang 50 and gem indexes weakened. In terms of index valuation, the valuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 increased significantly, the decline of Kechuang 50 ranked first, and the price earnings ratio of Kechuang 50 was at the lowest quantile in history.
Style performance: large cap stocks performed well this month, rising 1.57% against the trend; Medium cap stocks and small cap stocks were relatively weak. Undervalued value led the market against the trend, and overvalued value weakened. Medium and undervalued sectors have become the main driving force for the upward attack of the all a index. Stable, rising consumption style, excellent growth style, weakening this month, down 1.81%; Both financial and cyclical styles closed up.
Industry performance: most sectors closed up, while growth, finance and consumption sectors rose across the board. The media and leisure service industries performed well, rising 14.45% and 13.92% respectively this month. The electrical equipment industry led the decline.
Short term market sentiment: northbound capital inflow this month was 88.992 billion yuan, and the cumulative net inflow increased steadily. From the perspective of changes in the number of shares held by the industry, the number of shares held by banks, architectural decoration and non-bank financial industries increased significantly, while the number of shares held by non-ferrous metals, automobiles, textiles and clothing decreased relatively greatly. The main inflow industries of funds going north are: non bank finance, chemical industry, banking, food and beverage and electrical equipment; The main outflow industries are non-ferrous metals, building materials and biomedicine. The amount of two financing transactions decreased, and the financing market turned into outflow. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options increased by 1.43 percentage points, with the current value of 16.83%; The current value of the S & P 500 volatility (VIX) index is 17.33, down 9.86 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: market risk appetite has picked up. At present, the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend – 10-year Treasury bond is – 0.85%, down 0.18 percentage points month on month, above the average, at the historical 56% quantile; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.20%, down 0.08 percentage points month on month, below the average, at the historical 51% quantile, falling for three consecutive months. Compared with last month, ERP in most popular sectors decreased month on month.
Risk tips:
Downside risks of China’s economy; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Big country game risk, etc.
