Key investment points
Review of the new third board market in 2021: as of December 31, 2021,
1) Enterprise information: there are 5749 enterprises in the basic layer of the new third board, with a total market value of 1056.6 billion yuan; There are 1224 innovative enterprises with a total market value of 900.8 billion yuan.
2) Trading information: there are 409 market making trading enterprises and 6523 bidding trading enterprises on the new third board. The annual increases of the third board component index (899001. CSI) and the third board market making (899002. CSI) were 12.6% and 35.6% respectively, and the average daily turnover was 610 million yuan and 230 million yuan respectively.
3) Valuation: the average PE TTM of market making trading enterprises is 35 times.
Market review of Beijing stock exchange in 2021: Beijing stock exchange was officially opened on November 5, 2021, and by the end of 2021,
1) Enterprise information: there are 82 listed companies in Beijing Jiaotong, with a total market value of 272.2 billion yuan; There are 4.75 million investors.
2) Transaction information: from the opening of the market to the end of the year, the China Thailand north composite index fell by 3.53%, and the average daily transaction amount of the whole market was 1.9 billion yuan.
3) Valuation: the average PE TTM of Beijing stock exchange is 34 times and PS TTM is 7.5 times.
The significance of the new third board and Beijing Jiaotong stock exchange in the multi-level capital market:
1) Serve small and medium-sized enterprises. According to the financial report data of 2020, the proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises in the listed companies of Beijing stock exchange is 73%; Small and medium-sized enterprises accounted for 72% of the enterprises listed in the innovation layer and the basic layer of the new third board.
2) Promote the registration system. Beijing stock exchange inherits the core of the registration system of the new third board market, and due to its current scale and development stage, it is expected to become a cutting-edge market plate to promote the comprehensive registration system.
3) Serve the development of Beijing, Tianjin and northern regions. Promote the development of capital market and real economy in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Northern China through its resource allocation capacity.
Market forecast of Beijing stock exchange in 2022:
1) Policy: the gradual promotion of market-oriented policies is conducive to maintaining and activating market vitality.
2) Fundamentals: enterprises need time to digest the impact of costs, and the profit growth rate first goes down and then up. According to the view of the macro group of Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Research Institute: enterprise profits will still be affected by cost erosion in the first half of next year, and further efforts are needed to stabilize growth measures. Looking forward to next year, enterprise profit growth is expected to be improved with policy support. We believe that most enterprises of the Beijing stock exchange are still small in scale, and generally achieve high growth in 2021. It takes time to digest the high base. We expect that the overall profit growth of the market will go down first and then up. Whether the downward stage will continue to the interim report needs to be further observed according to the changes of macro-economy and epidemic situation.
3) Investors: dominated by professional institutional investors, strategic placement and innovation are still important ways to participate. By December 2021, the trading proportion of professional investors on the science and Innovation Board was nearly 90% and the shareholding was 64%. We believe that the market of Beijing stock exchange will show a similar development trend. In addition, according to the current issuance mode, strategic placement is a better way for investment institutions to achieve volume price balance. Although the market is expected to see further improvement in liquidity in 2022 and more diversified issuance methods in practice, it is expected that strategic placement and innovation will still be an important way for capital institutions to participate.
Investment strategy:
1) Overall market: it is expected that the overall market will be restrained first and then increased in 2022. Considering the change rhythm of enterprise profitability and market sentiment, there is pressure on the market in the early stage; However, with the promotion of follow-up policies, the listing of more high-quality enterprises and the continuous admission of professional institutions, the market will turn to an upward trend and can be expected in the future.
2) Main line logic: pay attention to the logic of individual stocks, industry market effect, dilution of valuation and repair. Although the overall valuation of the Beijing stock exchange is still discounted compared with the science and innovation board, we observe that since the opening of the Beijing stock exchange, the driving logic of individual stocks with active performance in the day has gradually converged with that of Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares. In the future, the factors of individual stocks will become the main driving factor of stock price, followed by the driving effect of the overall market of the industry, and the repair of the overall valuation level is not the main logic of 2022.
3) Pay attention to the subdivided industry leaders of R & D and Innovation: among the R & D and innovation oriented small and medium-sized enterprises, there will be more invisible champions, focusing on the enterprises with industry-leading competitive advantages and continuous investment in R & D and innovation. Such as Chuangyuan instrument, etc.
4) Capacity release enterprises in high growth industries: enterprises focusing on capacity release this year in high prosperity fields such as the Internet of things, new energy, new environmental protection materials and metauniverse.
Risk warning: the relevant policies of Beijing stock exchange are lower than expected; The improvement of enterprise profitability is lower than expected; There is a risk of deviation between the data and the actual market situation due to the limitations of the self built simulation index or the construction method. The conclusions are for reference only; The public information used in the report has risks such as lag or untimely update.
