It is a consensus that steady growth in 2022 requires infrastructure development, but there are still differences in the recovery range and development direction of infrastructure. Firstly, from the perspective of total amount, this paper makes a qualitative judgment and quantitative calculation on the overall infrastructure investment in 2022; Then, from the perspective of structure, it analyzes the possible starting point of capital construction in 2022.
Core conclusion: infrastructure construction is expected to increase higher than expected in 2022, and the annual growth rate may rise to about 8% or even higher (market neutral expectation is 5-7%). It is suggested to attach great importance to infrastructure chain investment opportunities. Structurally, new and old infrastructure will work together: in terms of old infrastructure, we can focus on four major directions: transportation and water conservancy, clean energy, coal and electricity transformation and underground pipe network; In terms of new infrastructure, during the "14th five year plan" period, the average annual growth rate is about 20%, and the average annual volume is about 1.6 trillion, which is about 10% of the infrastructure investment. Among them, data center, high-speed rail transit and 5g account for a high proportion, and the charging pile has the fastest growth rate, so we can focus on data center and rail transit.
1. In terms of total amount, the growth rate of infrastructure construction will pick up significantly in 2022
>According to qualitative judgment, can infrastructure investment rise in 2022? In recent years, infrastructure investment has been in a downturn, and the countercyclicality does not seem obvious. The downward pressure on the economy is still great in 2022. Can infrastructure growth rise? In fact, looking back on history, it can be found that infrastructure investment mainly hedges the decline of real estate and exports. It is expected that the growth rate of real estate and exports in 2022 will be significantly lower than that in 2021, which will force infrastructure investment to rebound significantly.
>According to quantitative calculation, how much infrastructure investment will be required in 2022? As a tool for steady growth, the growth rate of infrastructure is affected by the setting of GDP target in 2022 and the trend of other sub items of GDP, with great uncertainty. According to our calculation, under the assumption that consumption recovers, exports decline but are resilient, and real estate falls but still increases slightly, it may be necessary to achieve the target growth rate of 5.5% in 2022, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment may reach about 8% in 2022.
>In terms of funds, how much incremental financial support is there? In 2021, the total amount of "over revenue and expenditure failure" of general finance and special debt carry forward may reach 2 trillion, which is expected to provide additional support. In 2022, the fiscal tone will be positive, and the scale of funds invested in infrastructure by broad finance may increase by 20%. Pure financial support does not necessarily promote the improvement of infrastructure. Many factors need to be considered, such as the enthusiasm of local governments, project preparation, implicit debt resolution and so on, but the drag of restrictive factors is expected to be limited.
2. In terms of structure, in which direction will infrastructure investment start in 2022?
Looking back on 2021, most of the traditional infrastructure subitems increased at a low rate, and the investment in water, aviation and pipeline transportation increased rapidly; Looking forward to 2022, from the policy statement and data, new and old infrastructure is expected to work together:
Old infrastructure: focus on the four major directions of major transportation and water conservancy projects, acceleration of clean energy, transformation of coal and electricity and overweight of underground pipe network. According to the 14th five year plan, transportation, energy and water conservancy are the key points of old infrastructure construction. Specifically:
>Transportation: most of the major projects will be initially started in 2021, and the construction will be fully started in 2022. Many key projects of the construction project of a transportation power were initially started in the second half of 2021 or at the end of 2021. For example, the Ya'an Linzhi section of Sichuan Tibet Railway with a total investment of about 320 billion yuan was started in December last year, and the Chengdu Chongqing Shanghai (Shanghai Chongqing Chengdu) Riverside high-speed railway project with a total investment of about 530 billion yuan was started in September last year. Both of them will enter the stage of comprehensive construction in 2022.
>Water conservancy: there is a large space for water conservancy construction in 2022. According to the plan of the Ministry of water resources, 150 major water conservancy projects will be promoted from 2020 to 2022, with a total investment of 1.29 trillion yuan. At present, there is a large growth space between the progress and the target.
>Energy: photovoltaic wind power is the main force, energy storage investment grows fastest, and coal power transformation investment may increase. In terms of clean energy, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, we calculated that the investment scale of light, wind, nuclear, hydropower and supporting energy storage systems may be about 3 trillion yuan. Photovoltaic wind power accounts for more than half of the investment, which may accelerate in 2022; The scale of nuclear power investment is also large. We estimate that the average annual growth rate of clean energy investment in the 14th five year plan is about 10%, of which the growth rate of new energy storage is the fastest. In terms of traditional energy, referring to the statement of the central economic work conference, it is expected that the investment in coal power transformation may be increased in 2022.
>The underground pipe network may also exert some force, and the pulling effect of the old transformation should not be overestimated. The central economic work conference in 2021 places special emphasis on pipeline reconstruction, pointing to the investment in underground pipe network. In terms of old reconstruction, the "14th five year plan" requires the completion of 219000 old community reconstruction. 54700 new projects have been started from January to November 2021, so the annual average number of new projects started from 2022 to 2025 is only 40000. Moreover, the investment intensity of old reconstruction is low, and the expected incremental scale is relatively limited.
New infrastructure: accounting for about 10%, data center, high-speed rail transit and 5g account for a high proportion, and the charging pile has the fastest growth rate; In 2022, data center and urban circle rail transit may be the two major increments.
>As the primary focus of infrastructure investment, new infrastructure is actually mostly industrial investment. Its growth rate is fast, but its scale is relatively small, about 10% of infrastructure investment. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we estimated that the total investment scale in the seven major areas of new infrastructure may be close to 8 trillion yuan, with an average annual investment of 1.6 trillion yuan, about 10% of the annual infrastructure investment. Among them, the investment scale of data center is the largest, accounting for nearly half; The investment scale of high-speed rail transit and 5g is second. The overall average annual growth rate of new infrastructure is about 20%, of which the investment in automobile charging pile is the fastest, and the growth rate of 5g and data center is also over 20%.
>For 2022, the construction of data center and urban circle rail transit may be the main increment. The growth rate of other sub items such as 5g and charging pile is low or small, and the driving effect on the overall investment may be limited.
Risk tips: epidemic evolution exceeds expectations, policy force exceeds expectations, and extreme weather interference.
