abstract
With the increase of vaccination rate, the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures and the stimulation of macro policies, the global economy will recover strongly in 2021. Due to the continuous variation of covid-19 virus and the more infectious strain, the global epidemic has experienced multiple rounds of rebound, which has dragged down the pace of global economic recovery. On the other hand, the extremely loose monetary policy and the imbalance between supply and demand have led to a significant rise in commodity prices. Superimposed on the labor shortage and supply chain problems in various countries, the global inflationary pressure has increased significantly. Therefore, the global economic growth slowed down in the second half of the year, and the downward pressure on the economy gradually increased. Looking forward to 2022, the more infectious Omicron strain will lead to the rekindling of the global epidemic, many countries have restarted epidemic prevention and control measures, the global supply chain will face challenges again, and the economic uncertainty and downside risks will also increase. On the other hand, due to the sharp rise in inflationary pressure, global monetary policy has tended to tighten, but it will not tighten too quickly under the influence of the new round of epidemic.
In 2022, China's macro economy is expected to increase steadily in the transformation. This year, the downward pressure on China's economy has increased in the short term. In 2022, China's economic operation will really enter the "post epidemic" period. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in 2022 may fall between 5-5.5%. With the gradual upgrading of epidemic prevention measures and the continuous emergence of the effect of consumption promotion policies, residents' consumption potential will be further released and consumption will continue to recover. The overseas epidemic is still spreading, the gap between supply and demand of some commodities is widening, and the "substitution effect" continues to support China's exports to maintain a high boom. The extreme weather gradually fades, the gradual implementation of special debt financing projects in the future is superimposed, and there is a great possibility of financial advance in 2022, and the growth rate of infrastructure will hit the bottom and pick up in the future. Under the background of marginal relaxation of housing loan policy, the future sales area will take the lead in warming up to support the stability of real estate investment. The financing policy of real estate enterprises may maintain the trend of marginal slowdown. In terms of macro policy, the financial pre probability is implemented, and the monetary policy is stable and self-centered. Under the premise of increasing downward pressure on the economy, the policy direction is turning to wide currency and credit. Next, structural policies are still dominant, and refinancing and other tools may continue to be strengthened.
