Since the epidemic in 2020, the prices of PPI upstream industries have increased significantly, but the increase fluctuation of middle and downstream industries is small. The scissors difference between CPI and PPI has declined for 18 consecutive months, reaching the bottom in October and rebounding in November. Generally speaking, the transmission from PPI to CPI can be divided into two paths: the first is direct impact, that is, PPI means of living affect CPI; The second is indirect influence, which is transmitted internally from PPI to downstream and then to CPI. It is worth noting that CPI will also have an impact on PPI. This paper analyzes the laws and characteristics of price transmission in detail by constructing price transmission index, splitting PPI and CPI items, combing the corresponding relationship and stepwise regression.
PPI internal transmission: two-level differentiation of industry cost transmission capacity
1. Comparison of micro transmission capacity: the transmission capacity of the middle and lower reaches of this round is worse than that in history, but the margin has improved since the second half of 2021.
We use the industry correspondence in the input-output table and the PPI of each industry to construct the intermediate input cost transmission index (CTIC). The higher the index, the stronger the price transmission capacity. The conclusions are as follows: 1) the CTIC of most upstream industries is greater than 1, indicating that the price transmission capacity is strong; The CTIC of most middle and downstream industries is less than 1, indicating that the price transmission capacity is weak. 2) There is an obvious gap in subdivided industries. The industries with high CTIC are upstream industries such as oil and gas mining, coal mining, ferrous metal mining and beneficiation, nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation, waste resource recovery and so on; The industries with lower CTIC are medicine, computer and other electronic equipment, instruments and meters, metal products, mechanical equipment repair, automobile manufacturing and other industries. 3) In 2021, the price transmission capacity of some middle and lower reaches industries gradually increased, that is, the second half of the year was better than the first half, such as metal products, general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, railway and other transportation equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, food manufacturing, rubber and plastic manufacturing, automobile manufacturing and other industries. 4) Through the comparison of historical quantiles, the price transmission capacity of most middle and downstream industries in 2021 becomes worse than the historical ratio, that is, about 80% of the middle and downstream industries have a historical quantile of less than 50%, indicating that the price transmission of this round of commodity price upward to middle and downstream industries is relatively limited, such as computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, wine Beverage and refined tea manufacturing, textile and garment, leather products, paper industry, etc. 5) From the historical quantile trend of CTIC, except for individual industries, the cost transmission effect of almost all industries in the second half of 2021 is better than that in the first half of 2021.
2. Comparison of meso transmission capacity: the cost transmission capacity of upstream, middle and downstream industries is differentiated. Compared with history, the upstream is stronger and the downstream is worse.
1) Compared with the correlation coefficient of PPI in the upstream, middle and downstream, the transmission of PPI means of production and means of living is not smooth. In contrast, when the split is finer, the transmission capacity of PPI from upstream to midstream and from midstream to downstream is slightly enhanced, but it is still limited. 2) We constructed the weighted CTIC index of upstream, middle and downstream. The absolute value and historical quantile show that, compared with history, the price transmission capacity of upstream industries in the upward period of this round of PPI is stronger than ever, and the price transmission capacity of downstream industries is worse than ever. However, a marginal change is that the price transmission capacity of the midstream industry in the second half of 2021 is much higher than that in the first half of 2021. From the time lag of upstream to downstream price transmission, it is expected that the subsequent middle and downstream price transmission is expected to improve and will be transmitted to CPI through the downstream of PPI. However, the improvement degree of middle and downstream price transmission is expected to be limited when the consumption is not significantly higher than expected.
PPI to CPI transmission: the overall transmission risk is small, and the structural price rise can be expected
1. Overall conduction: understand the deviation between PPI and CPI in three dimensions.
Because the transmission of PPI means of production to their means of living is not smooth, and the transmission to CPI is not only poor, but also has time lag, so the overall transmission of PPI to CPI is not smooth. The deviation between CPI and PPI can be understood from three dimensions: 1) firstly, it comes from the difference of its composition. PPI only includes industrial products, and the weight of means of production accounts for a large proportion (about 72%); CPI contains a large number of service items, and food, tobacco and alcohol still account for the main weight (about 27%), so PPI is vulnerable to international commodity and energy prices, mainly related to the price of industrial products at the production end; CPI is affected by downstream consumer demand and food prices. 2) It originates from the internal law of economic operation. In the upward stage of the economic cycle, the price of upstream raw materials first, and the scissors difference between CPI and PPI goes down. With the transmission and diffusion of prices to the downstream, the scissors difference between CPI and PPI bottoms out and picks up. At this time, the economy tends to go down. In addition, the essence of the scissors difference between CPI and PPI also reflects the redistribution of upstream, middle and downstream profits. 3) From the structural characteristics of economic transformation. After 2011, the lack of endogenous economic power blocked the transmission of PPI to CPI, and the trend deviated in most periods, which was mainly disturbed by factors such as pig cycle, peak labor participation rate, real estate crowding out effect and so on.
2. Medium industry transmission: the transmission of PPI medium industry to CPI is not global and presents structural characteristics. Industries with high regression coefficient are tobacco products, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, textile and garment clothing, water production and supply, printing and other industries. The rise of PPI in these industries may lead to the rise of consumer goods prices.
3. The conclusion of two-way detailed transmission of CPI and PPI shows that: 1) not all industries have smooth price transmission, and about half of the industries selected by us for one-to-one comparison between PPI and CPI have poor price transmission; 2) Industries with good price transmission effect from PPI to CPI include tobacco and alcohol manufacturing, textile and garment industry, clothing industry, general equipment repair industry, chemical preparation manufacturing industry, etc; 3) The transmission from CPI to PPI is mainly reflected in the transmission from Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) to food processing industry. Except aquatic products and eggs, the transmission from other details to PPI is generally good. Therefore, on the whole, we can pay attention to the possible price increases of tobacco and alcohol, food processing, textile and clothing, western medicine and so on.
Risk statement
There was a deviation in the model calculation, and the price rise of CPI exceeded expectations.
