1. The marginal supply of the industry was loose in 22 years, and the supply and demand were basically in balance. It is expected that the price center will fall back to 700000-750000 yuan / ton.
From the demand side, it is assumed that: A. in the year 22, the main production expansion will be 36 inch crystal drawing furnace, the new silicon wafer production capacity will be about 146gw, the weight of the whole set of thermal field required for a single furnace will be about 257.5kg, and the permeability of carbon thermal field in the new production capacity will reach 75%; b. In 22 years, 220gw of components were shipped, with a capacity ratio of 1.17, and carbon accounted for about 57% of the total capacity; c. In the total capacity, it is estimated that about 16% of the crystal drawing furnace needs carbon thermal field transformation. It is estimated that the demand for carbon thermal field in 22 years will be 6608 tons. Thanks to the increase of industrial shipments and the increase of single crystal furnace size, the demand for carbon thermal field in 22 years will increase by about 77% compared with that in 21 years, and it is still expected to maintain a high level.
On the supply side, it is estimated that the carbon heat field supply of industry leading enterprises will be about 6200 tons in 22 years, the cumulative supply of other enterprises will be about 1000 tons, and the cumulative supply in 2022 will be about 7200 tons, about 8% higher than the demand.
On the one hand, compared with 21 years, the marginal supply of the industry in 22 years is loose, and the price is expected to decline; On the other hand, the supply and demand of the industry is still relatively balanced in 22 years, and the possibility of price war on this basis is low. We expect that the price center of carbon heat field in 22 years will be 700000-750000 yuan / ton.
2. Core competitive factor: cost reduction caused by process improvement
There is little difference in the products and prices of the thermal field. The core competitive factor is the cost. The gross profit margin of 21h1 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) carbon thermal field is 60.4%, 29.44pct higher than 30.96% of Xi’an super code. The cost advantages of industry leaders mainly lie in:
a. Upward integration + know how reduces the raw material cost caused by raw material consumption, and the material cost is 32.54% lower than that of super code;
b. Through process improvement, such as self-made preform non needle structure, changing the width and height of deposition furnace, improving heating uniformity, etc., the production efficiency is improved, and the depreciation dilution + power consumption is reduced. The manufacturing cost is 64% lower than that of super code.
In addition, the subsequent single furnace capacity increase (exceeding the latest single deposition furnace capacity by 22 tons / set, 32% higher than the old capacity in the industry), the depreciation and maintenance costs are expected to be diluted, and the cost of new capacity in the thermal field can be further reduced.
3. The downstream extends widely, and the carbon ceramic brake disc becomes the second growth curve
Carbon ceramic brake disc: high process synergy + high performance added value. In the process, the carbon ceramic composite only needs to be silicified in the last step of the carbon carbon process. In terms of properties, compared with carbon carbon composites, the friction properties, wear resistance, high temperature resistance and strength of carbon ceramics are significantly improved. Carbon ceramic brake disc can greatly reduce weight + improve vehicle braking performance.
With the maturity of technology and the decrease of cost, carbon ceramic brake discs are expected to develop rapidly. With the improvement of process maturity and production yield of carbon ceramic brake pads, carbon ceramic composites are expected to achieve mass production. From the perspective of production process, it is estimated that the cost reduction of carbon ceramic brake disc after mass production is slightly higher than that of carbon based composites (calculated by 30% cost increase, the corresponding cost is about 450 yuan / kg). Enterprises can increase the market penetration of carbon ceramic by transferring part of their profits & reducing the price of carbon ceramic brake pads to basically the same as that of carbon based composites. Assuming that carbon ceramic brakes are gradually popularized in the past five years, the penetration rate of medium and high-end models and heavy trucks in the future will be 20%. It is estimated that the market scale of carbon ceramic brake discs in China will be about 10 billion yuan in 2025 based on the decrease of single vehicle value to 10000 yuan
4. Investment suggestion: pay attention to industry leaders and new entrants with high flexibility and expected to achieve rapid cost reduction
Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) : a. the process and cost advantages are obvious. The company has built a low-cost advantage through upward raw material integration + process improvement. The gross profit margin of 21h1 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) carbon thermal field is 60.4%, 29.44pct higher than 30.96% of Xi’an super code. b. The carbon leader continued to expand production in the follow-up, and the long order guaranteed product sales. We expect that the company will ship 1500 tons of carbon thermal field in 21 years, with a market share of more than 40%. In 22 years, the company’s production capacity will be increased to 2500 tons, and in 23 years, the company is expected to form a total production capacity of 3000 tons; The company has signed long-term thermal field supply agreement contracts with a number of enterprises, with a total of 3900 tons, forming a strong guarantee for shipment and market share. c. The carbon ceramic brake disc business has been successfully promoted, and the company continues to reduce the cost of products. At present, the introduction of carbon ceramic brake disc products into China’s leading car enterprises is accelerated, which is expected to achieve pulse volume.
Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) : (1) high speed railway brake pad is the leader, and the first mover advantage lays the foundation for the steady development of the main industry. Low cost of downstream brake pads + high performance requirements of key products, technology and reputation as key competitive elements, with significant first mover advantage. The company has strong technical strength + wide range of certified products + low-cost advantages. It is expected that the main business will maintain a high market share. a. Strong technical strength: in 2016, the company took the lead in realizing the domestic substitution of metallurgical powder brake pads, self-developed material formula to ensure product performance and customized production equipment, and the average service life of the three generations of powder metallurgy upgraded products developed by the company has been nearly doubled; b. The certified products cover a wide range of models: we estimate that the market share of the company in 20 years is about 25%. By the end of 20 years, the company has held CRCC certificate, covering 33 EMU models, accounting for 64% of 51 EMU models in the whole road; c. Low cost advantage: the company relies on the automation transformation of production equipment and the improvement of production efficiency to realize the continuous decline of the main business cost. The unit cost of powder metallurgy brake pad decreased from 1974 yuan / piece in 2013 to 442 yuan / piece in 2019, with a cumulative decrease of 77%.
(2) In the past 22 years, carbon ceramic + carbon composite materials have made great efforts, and are optimistic about the company’s second growth, high elasticity and imagination. a. At the end of the 21st century, the company’s 2000 ton carbon carbon composite production line in Sichuan Jiangyou was put into operation, and the company won the bid for 200 sets of Qinghai Gaojing crucibles, indicating that the products have been recognized by the downstream and are expected to be large-scale in the future. Assuming that the company will ship 1500 tons in 22 years, the market share can reach 23%. b. Large scale deposition furnace + low electricity / gas cost + prefabricated technical reserve + automation foundation, the hot field business of the company is expected to contribute high profit elasticity. We calculate that the single ton cost of the company’s hot field in 22 years is expected to reach 360000 yuan. Assuming that the average price of the hot field in 22 years is 730000 yuan, based on the cost rate of 15% and the shipment volume of 1500 tons, the net profit of the company’s hot field business in 22 years is expected to be 328 million yuan, It is about 3 times of the company’s main business profit in 20 years; c. Accumulation of deep + steady and steady, carbon ceramic brake disc has entered the real vehicle test stage, and the follow-up is expected to be rapid and large-scale, opening up the imagination space. On the basis of its own brake pad experience + 5 years of continuous research and development, the company has completed the design and research and development of automotive carbon ceramic brake discs, and the products have completed all bench test verification. The results show that the performance is excellent and equivalent to that of international well-known brands, and has entered the stage of real vehicle verification.
Risk tips: the downstream demand is less than expected, the supply of raw materials is less than expected, and the verification progress of carbon ceramic brake disc is less than expected; The report contains the researcher’s calculation process for reference only
