Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the output of passenger cars in December was 267977, with a month on month ratio of + 21.43% / + 14.65% respectively; The sales volume was 233671 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 11.77% / + 4.34% respectively. The annual output of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) in 2021 was 2138127, a year-on-year increase of + 5.08%; The sales volume was 2144387, a year-on-year increase of + 4.92%. Among them, 1) the output of GAC Honda in December was 94365, with a month on month ratio of + 12.28% / + 7.68%, and the sales volume was 78402, with a month on month ratio of - 3.54% / + 0.89%. The annual production batch was 787109 / 780266 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 2.29% / - 3.17% respectively. 2) GAC Toyota produced 103195 vehicles in December, with a month on month ratio of + 26.45% / + 21.65% respectively, and sold 98523 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 36.54% / + 15.91% respectively. The annual production batch was 823296 / 828000 vehicles respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 7.62% / + 8.23% respectively. 3) GAC motor's output in December was 43964 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 35.19% / + 25.04% respectively; The sales volume was 32151, with a month on month ratio of + 2.18% / - 9.62% respectively. The annual production batch was 323245 / 324201 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.30% / + 10.35% respectively. 4) GAC ea'an produced 16449 vehicles in December, with a month on month ratio of + 121.24% / + 8.69% respectively; The sales volume was 14500, with a month on month ratio of + 98.49% / - 3.56% respectively. The annual production batch was 121382 / 120155 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 102.51% / + 101.80% respectively.
GAC's overall production batch increased month on month, the shortage of chips continued to improve, and Guangfeng and ai'an performed well: 1) joint venture brand: the overall production batch increased month on month: Guangfeng's production batch achieved double-digit positive growth in December; The wholesale volume of guangben in December was basically flat month on month, and the annual production batch increased negatively year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of chip shortage. 2) GAC motor: with the gradual easing of chip shortage, the production end has improved significantly. In December, the overall output of GAC motor brand was + 25.04% month on month, and the demand for key models continued to be hot. The cumulative order of Yingbao exceeded 70000, and the terminal sales exceeded 10000 for three consecutive months; The order of the second generation gs8 exceeded 20000 within 18 days of listing, and the demand side performed well. 3) GAC ea'an: the output chain performance is better than the wholesale chain performance, and the terminal sales volume performs well. In December, the terminal sales volume of GAC ea'an reached a record high of 16675 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 119% and a month on month increase of + 14.48%. In December, the capacity construction project of gac-e'an No. 2 plant was approved, with a planned capacity of 200000 vehicles / year. The capacity expansion provides guarantee for the continuous contribution of sales increment of e'an.
Replenishment of the group as a whole and all brands: according to our self built inventory system, the inventory was replenished in December Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , and the enterprise's inventory in the current month was + 34306 (compared with November). Guangben / Guangfeng / GAC motor / ai'an make up the inventory, and the enterprise inventory is + 15963 / + 4672 / + 11813 / + 1949 vehicles respectively in the current month (compared with November).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that with the launch of GAC motor + GAC e'an new model, a new round of product cycle will continue to be launched, and the cycle of Japanese models is strong, which is expected to continue to improve. We maintain Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 2021-2023 parent net profit expectation of RMB 6.5/9/11.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.9% / + 38.3% / + 23.0% respectively; The corresponding EPS from 2021 to 2023 is 0.63/0.87/1.07 yuan and PE is 24 / 17 / 14 times. For a long time, we still maintain the "buy" rating of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) .
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
