Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597)
Low sugar leads the trend, and sweeteners have broad growth space
With the enhancement of residents' awareness of sugar control, sweeteners such as Acesulfame and sucralose are facing a period of rapid development. It is estimated that by 2025, the global annual demand for Acesulfame and sucralose will reach 41000 tons and 29000 tons respectively, with broad growth space. At present, the global production capacity of sucralose is about 23500 T / A, and there is no new production capacity in the short term; Ansaimi has a production capacity of about 20000 t / A, and only 15000 T / A in the later stage. It is expected to be completed in 2022, and the supply and demand of the industry is tightening. Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) is a leading sweetener enterprise. At present, it has a production capacity of 12000 tons / year of Acer honey and 8000 tons / year of sucralose. It has significant advantages in technical scale, integration and cost control. We expect that from 2021 to 2023, ansami will achieve revenue of RMB 750 / 85 / 970 million, sales volume of RMB 121 / 1.26 / 14000 tons, gross profit of RMB 290 / 3.2 / 34000 / ton, gross profit of RMB 360 / 4.0 / 470 million and net profit of RMB 290 / 3.1 / 360 million; From 2021 to 2023, sucralose will achieve a revenue of 1.35/24.4/2.6 billion yuan, a sales volume of 59 / 0.76/0.80 million tons, a gross profit of 5.5/10.1/106 million yuan / ton, a gross profit of 32 / 7.7/850 million yuan and a net profit of 200 / 5.0/560 million yuan.
The new capacity of 5000 t / A is about to be put into operation, and the maltol business has entered a period of rapid development
Methyl and ethyl maltol are mainly used in baking, beverages, cosmetics and other fields. From 2010 to 2020, the average annual compound growth rate of retail sales of beverages and cosmetics in China was as high as 11.8% and 14.4% respectively. The rapid growth of downstream market also contributed to the rapid increase of Maltol demand. At present, the production capacity of methyl maltol and ethyl maltol in China is 2750 T / A and 13700 T / A, mainly concentrated in five companies such as Jinhe and Wanxiang, with high industry concentration. At present, the company has a production capacity of 1000 t / a methyl maltol and 4000 T / a ethyl maltol; At present, the construction of 1000 t / a methyl maltol and 4000 T / a ethyl maltol has been basically completed, the scale advantage has been continuously enhanced, and it has strong raw material self-sufficiency capacity. We expect that from 2021 to 2023, the maltol business will achieve a revenue of RMB 390 / 81 / 910 million, a sales volume of 44 / 0.81/0.900 tons, a gross profit of RMB 32 / 3.7 / 38000 / ton, a gross profit of RMB 140 / 3.0 / 340 million and a net profit of RMB 110 / 2.1/240 million, entering a period of rapid development.
Bulk chemicals effectively play a synergistic role, and the industry boom helps improve profitability
The company has rich production capacity of bulk chemicals, including 300000 t / a sulfuric acid, 40000 t / a thionyl chloride, 10000 t / a diketene, etc., which can effectively provide internal supporting facilities for key products such as acesulfan and sucralose and effectively reduce production costs; At the same time, strong cycle basic chemicals and weak cycle food additives can effectively improve the company's anti risk ability. In 2021, the price of bulk chemicals rose rapidly, and the company's basic chemical business also ushered in a boom cycle. In 2021h1, the basic chemical business realized a gross profit of 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 84.4%, and the profit increased significantly.
Since August 2021, acesulfame and sucralose have ushered in a business cycle. Acesulfame has increased from 61000 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to 90000 yuan / ton at the end of December, an increase of 48%; Sucralose rose from 208000 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to 480000 yuan / ton at the end of December, an increase of 131%. On the one hand, driven by the rising price of raw materials, DMF, the key raw material of sucralose, rose from 7750 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to 19312 yuan / ton at the end of October, an increase of 149%. On the other hand, the continuous growth of export volume and the improvement of supply pattern also promoted the sharp rise of sweetener prices.
The price of sucralose is expected to remain at a medium high level. Since mid October, the prices of upstream raw materials have generally risen and fallen, and the pressure on the cost side has decreased. However, on December 6, the quotation of sucralose increased again, from 450000 yuan / ton to 480000 yuan / ton. It can be seen that the supply and demand side supports the price more strongly. In the future, in the short term, as the Spring Festival and the Winter Olympics are approaching, some manufacturers may stop production and reduce production, and orders for festivals such as the Spring Festival will begin to prepare goods one after another; Under the long-term and low sugar trend, the demand for sweeteners will continue to grow, while there is no clear plan to expand the production of sucralose in the future. Therefore, sucralose will be in a tight balance between supply and demand in the medium term, and the price is expected to remain at a medium high level.
Benefiting from the effective control of the epidemic situation, the recovery of downstream terminal demand, and the rapid increase in the output of downstream markets such as beverages, cosmetics and meat products, thus driving the growth of the demand for methylethyl maltol. Meanwhile, the prices of furfural and magnesium ingot, the main raw materials of maltol, also increased rapidly. The market price of furfural increased from 9725 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to 22750 yuan / ton at the end of December 2021, with a cumulative increase of 133.93%.
The support of demand and cost also promoted the rapid growth of Maltol price. The price of Maltol has increased continuously since early September 2021, and the market price of methyl maltol has rapidly increased from 100000 yuan / ton in early September to 150000 yuan / ton in early December; The market price of ethyl maltol also increased rapidly from 90000 yuan / ton in early September to 150000 yuan / ton in early December. Jinhe and other enterprises fully benefited from the rapid rise of Maltol price.
Since December, considering the launch of the company's new production capacity, Jinhe began to reduce the price of ethyl maltol, which also led to the overall decline of the market price to 100000 yuan / ton. Jinhe has perfect raw material supporting capacity and significant cost advantage; However, it is difficult for backward small production capacity to reduce prices quickly, and under the condition of cost increase, it is faced with great loss pressure. It is expected that Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) will further increase its share in the maltol market in the future.
Investment advice and profit forecast
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be RMB 1.098, 1.547 and 1.807 billion respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 196, 2.76 and 3.22/share, corresponding to 24, 17 and 15 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: economic downside risk; Raw material price fluctuation risk; The commissioning progress of the project is less than expected; Environmental protection and safety production risks; Increased risk of competition in the same industry; The price of end products fluctuates sharply
