As the crude oil fluctuated and fell, the PTA cost of polyester upstream fell, giving polyester some profits. However, due to the non increment of terminal orders, the production and sales of polyester were flat, and the high commencement of polyester factory, there was negative pressure in the follow-up.
Zhai Xinyu, polyester analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, told the financial associated press that the weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have been reducing production and burden in the past two weeks. As of March 16, the comprehensive starting load of looms is less than 70%, which may be reduced to less than 60% before and after the Qingming Festival. "Business was good in March and April, but now we have to reduce the burden, which shows that the orders are very poor."
The financial Associated Press reporter learned that the recent mainstream polyester factories may have the intention of collective production reduction. At present, some polyester factories such as Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester Material Co.Ltd(600370) ( Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester Material Co.Ltd(600370) . SH), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ) have maintenance plans in the middle and late March, but according to the data of CCF, the current polyester operating load is about 93-94%, and the polyester inventory is still high.
From the downstream, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February this year, China's total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.7% year-on-year, of which the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, knitwear and textiles increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate of clothing retail sales was lower than that of society as a whole. At present, affected by the epidemic, many clothing markets are closed and logistics are blocked, which has formed a certain inhibition on demand.
polyester production and sales downturn and inventory pressure
Under the pressure of crude oil price, the cost side support of PTA weakened, and the price fell from March 10 Xie Wen, senior analyst of Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.Ltd(600704) futures aromatics industry chain, told the financial associated press that PTA processing profits were compressed because PTA prices could not keep up with the pace of oil prices. At present, PTA processing fees have fallen to a negative value. The operating rate of processing enterprises has continued to decline since February, and the industrial profit is in the low range.
PTA fell and repaired the polyester profit at the lower end, but the textile demand did not improve greatly. Xie Wen mentioned that the textile start-up has been picking up slowly after the year, but there is no new increment in the textile terminal. In the short term, PTA price will only fluctuate with the cost side oil price.
The Research Report of Tianfeng Futures Research Institute also mentioned that "the weaving operation rate and order margin have rebounded, but the recovery after the festival is not as good as the same period of previous years. There are generally few new orders (mainly orders before the year), and the weaving preparation enthusiasm is not high. In the early stage, the low-cost raw material inventory has appreciated, and the factory can still support it. If the raw materials are expected to decline, the new orders may be weaker."
"The psychological price of downstream weaving manufacturers' procurement after the festival is not higher than the final promotion price before the festival. The price of polyester factories has been rising passively after the festival, and the willingness of downstream procurement is not positive," Zhai Xinyu said. "Polyester factories try to promote and de inventory, but after the raw materials begin to fall, they will not choose to purchase in the mood of buying up or not buying down. In addition, their own business is very poor, and the purchased raw materials can only become their own inventory."
According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, the average production and sales of polyester in recent two weeks is about 30%, which means that 70% is accumulated into inventory. If the factory doesn't want to increase its inventory, it can only choose to reduce production. The above-mentioned 68.6% of the comprehensive starting load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is significantly lower than that in previous years. The figure in the same period in 2021 is more than 83%, and it is also about 68% during the epidemic in 2020.
According to wind data, as of March 10, the inventory days of polyester filament FDY, DTY and POY were 26.5 days, 29 days and 25 days respectively, at a high level.
industrial chain or start production reduction
The driving force behind the rise of polyester prices and raw material prices in this round is the trend of international oil prices, but the epidemic risk, high oil prices and high transportation costs all have an impact on the orders of terminal garment and textile enterprises. At present, there are few orders in spring and summer. Under the circumstances of high cost, high inventory, low profit and low demand, enterprises may start the production reduction mode.
Since the end of February, due to the continuous low processing fee, some PTA factories have successively released the news of maintenance and load reduction. At present, the restart time of Yisheng Ningbo 2 million tons has been postponed to be determined, and two sets of Yisheng new materials have maintained one and a half sets of operation. Fuhaichuang 4.5 million tons fell to 80% operation in early March, Yizheng 350000 ton chemical fiber plant stopped in early March, and 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH) line 4 began maintenance on March 10; In addition, 650000 ton units of Yangzi Petrochemical and 1.25 million ton units of Zhuhai Ineos are planned to be overhauled in late March, and units of Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) 1 line and Jiaxing Petrochemical are planned to be overhauled in April.
The financial Associated Press reporter learned that at present, most weaving factories maintain basic orders, and the overall atmosphere is dull. The price reduction and promotion of polyester this week has not aroused the purchase desire of the factory. In terms of polyester production capacity, if the above-mentioned enterprises start device maintenance or reduce production, the polyester production will be reduced next week.
Zhai Xinyu mentioned that the startup rate of weaving factories is currently declining slightly. By the end of March and the beginning of April, the decline will be significantly expanded or reduced by about 10%. In the case of frequent fluctuations in the raw material market, the downstream will only continue to wait and see in the short term.
