With the sharp rise of wood pulp in this round, many manufacturers choose to “replace wood with bamboo”, and the demand for bamboo pulp substitution has increased. As of March 16, the mainstream ex factory quotation of domestic bleached bamboo pulp board with tax was 6 Profit Cultural & Creative Group Co.Ltd(300640) 0 yuan / ton, up 10.5% compared with that of the previous year, and the imported coniferous pulp increased by about 6% in the same period.
Ma shangmin, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, told the associated press that the impact of the sharp rise in wood pulp prices on the bamboo pulp market is mainly reflected in the support of manufacturers’ mentality. The sharp rise in the price of imported wood pulp has caused a certain panic in the downstream and promoted the rise of bamboo pulp prices. In addition, with the rapid rise of the price of imported coniferous pulp and the widening of the price difference with bamboo pulp, some paper enterprises are subject to high cost pressure and turn to purchase bamboo pulp as a substitute.
the Q1 performance of manufacturers may increase year on year
It is worth noting that during the price rise of wood pulp in Q1 in 2021, bamboo pulp manufacturers were subject to inventory pressure and price increase was affected to some extent. This time, bamboo pulp rose strongly, and the Q1 performance of relevant manufacturers may be improved year-on-year.
Ma shangmin said that since 2022, the average price of bamboo pulp has been 5770 yuan / ton, compared with 5638 yuan / ton in the same period last year, and the overall price has increased year-on-year. However, as most manufacturers adopt the pulp and paper integration mode, it is unclear whether the rise in pulp price means the year-on-year thickening of profits. “The profit of bamboo pulp is better in non wood pulp. Now bamboo pulp manufacturers generally feed back that there are sufficient orders and low inventory, so they don’t worry about closing a deal when raising the quotation.” She added.
It is reported that the top 3 bamboo pulp enterprises in China are Sichuan Yongfeng Paper Group, Guizhou Chitianhua Paper Co., Ltd. and Yibinpaperindustryco.Ltd(600793) ( Yibinpaperindustryco.Ltd(600793) . SH). In addition, Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600103) ( Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600103) . SH), C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) ( C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) . SZ), Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) ( Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) . SH) and Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ( Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) . SZ) also have bamboo pulp capacity.
Recently, Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600103) announced that from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 469 million yuan, an increase of about 10% year-on-year; The attributable net profit was about 35 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 30%. On March 17, the financial Associated Press reporter called the company to understand the production capacity of bamboo pulp, but no one answered. It is understood that Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600103) has a layout in the field of wood pulp and bamboo pulp, but no specific data can be found through public channels Yibinpaperindustryco.Ltd(600793) said that the company’s bamboo pulp production capacity has stabilized at 150000 tons in the past two years, and the prices of bamboo pulp and wood pulp are closely linked.
substitution effect depends on widening price difference
On the basis of price linkage, the price of bamboo pulp benefits from the rise of wood pulp, but the actual substitution effect also depends on the large price difference between the two.
Ma shangmin said: “industry companies will consider replacing coniferous pulp with bamboo pulp only when the price difference between bamboo pulp and coniferous pulp reaches more than 500 yuan / ton. Therefore, when the price of coniferous pulp reached more than 7000 yuan / ton last week, the substitution effect is more obvious. Below this price, manufacturers feed back that coniferous pulp is preferred, and the cost of bamboo pulp is also rising more now.”
For the future, Ma shangmin expects that the current overall price of bamboo pulp has approached the high bottleneck, and the space for sharp rise is limited. However, thanks to the relatively stable overall supply and demand, once the price of wood pulp is corrected, the downward pressure of bamboo pulp will not increase suddenly, and he tends to think that the price change is gentle.
It is understood that the paper products made of bamboo pulp are mainly used in the field of household paper due to their poor toughness. The typical representative is banbu, a brand of Sichuan Huanlong group. In the past two years, due to the weak terminal demand and overcapacity and other adverse factors, the prosperity of the household paper industry has declined, and the downstream customers have adapted to the procurement rhythm dominated by replenishment, with limited elasticity on the demand side.
In terms of supply, the financial Associated Press reporter noted that the progress of many bamboo pulp projects was less than expected, and there was no new production capacity in the Chinese market this year Yibinpaperindustryco.Ltd(600793) 2020 has announced a new production capacity of 450000 tons of bamboo pulp, but so far there has been no clear progress C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) (Dazhou) 300000 ton bamboo pulp paper integration project has been completed, but it has not been put into operation.
