Shenzhen Click Technology Co.Ltd(002782) (002782)
Key investment points
From the perspective of industry: "new energy +" promotes the compound growth of magnetic components by more than 30% in the next 3-5 years, and Chinese manufacturers benefit from the localization trend
With the promotion of "new energy +", the demand for magnetic components of electric vehicles, photovoltaic and charging piles has increased significantly: the market space of magnetic components for electric vehicles has increased significantly, mainly due to the simultaneous rise of volume and price (increase of single vehicle value + increase of penetration rate). We calculate that the market scale of new energy vehicles / photovoltaic / charging piles will reach 21 / 65 / 5.8 billion yuan respectively in 2025. With the overall localization of the supply chain, Chinese magnetic component manufacturers have ushered in a new round of growth opportunities: Shenzhen Click Technology Co.Ltd(002782) as a typical representative, after entering the supply chain of mainstream automobile enterprises (Volkswagen, new forces, etc.), it is expected to deeply benefit from the localization opportunity of new energy vehicle supply chain.
Enterprise positioning: the company takes the lead in the field of "electric vehicle + charging pile" magnetic components, and actively competes for bidding at the same time
Haiguang electronics is expected to become the leader of magnetic components in the whole industry chain
At the end of December 2020, the company announced that it would bid 186044900 yuan to buy 54.25% equity of Shenzhen haiguang Electronics Co., Ltd. held by Tianjin optoelectronics, becoming the buyer. We believe that the success of bidding for haiguang optoelectronics will realize the strong combination of the magnetic component industry. While supplementing the product and capacity structure, Shenzhen Click Technology Co.Ltd(002782) is expected to further play a synergistic effect on the client side ( Shenzhen Click Technology Co.Ltd(002782) the main source of revenue is overseas, while haiguang is in China). The leading position will be further strengthened. From the perspective of the business side, In 2021, the overall gross profit margin of the magnetic component industry was under pressure (due to the rise of copper price & exchange rate and other factors). The company successfully negotiated price increases with most customers for many times. It is expected that the gross profit margin will gradually improve and bring certain performance flexibility.
Cognitive difference: the growth of incremental demand of new energy industry chain & product barrier is better than traditional market
The market believes that the company's business lacks barriers, and the certainty of new energy business growth is in doubt. The reason is that the company's traditional business barriers are not high, and the current volume of new energy business is small. We judge that the growth of the new energy business of the enterprise will be sustainable and deterministic in the future. The reasons are as follows: 1) the core of the new energy vehicle business lies in the customer verification barrier, the product customization attribute is prominent, the profit margin level is relatively high, and the Volkswagen MEB project ensures the stability of the long-term growth of the new energy vehicle business; 2) Photovoltaic & charging pile business will follow the rapid growth of the industry. The company has introduced mainstream inverter & charging pile customers with strong growth certainty. Compared with the needs of traditional fields, the new energy business has certain customer introduction & verification barriers in general, and the growth of the industry ensures the growth of the demand in the new energy field, so as to drive the overall operation to continue to rise.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 90 / 192 / 273 million from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.18/0.40/0.56 respectively. Corresponding to PE 70.59/32.87/23.16x from 2021 to 2023. At the end of 2021, the company announced that it had bid for haioptoelectronics as the buyer. We believe that if the merger is successful, it will not only supplement the product structure, but also be completed at the client, make the leading position more stable and enhance the growth certainty. Therefore, Shenzhen Click Technology Co.Ltd(002782) 35x PE in 2023 is given, corresponding to the target market value of RMB 9.555 billion (excluding the consolidation of haiphotoelectron), and the "buy" rating is given for the first time
Risk statement
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the smooth customer certification leads to the lower than expected capacity climb; Risk of increased competition; Risk of rising raw material prices.
