Rongwei securities Liu Sishan: the US Federal Reserve’s moderate interest rate hike gives global financial markets a short respite

Overnight, the rise of euro and US stock index boosted the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities in early trading, and the intraday games, Chinese medicine, tourism, COVID-19 drugs and Baijiu sector changed. The Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities followed a high concussion. The afternoon sell-off showed that the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities were down sharply, or narrowed. As of the closing, the Shanghai stock index closed at 321506, up 1.4%; Shenzhen stock exchange closed at 12290, up 2.41%.

On the disk, property management, lithography, real estate, Chuang medicine and aquatic products were among the top gainers. The stock market fell slightly, and the market as a whole showed a general upward trend.

Technically, the stock index is still in the short trend, and the medium and short-term moving average diverges downward, forming multiple repression on the stock index. Although the rebound in the last two days is strong, the short-term moving average trend has not been repaired. Today, the 5-day moving average of the Shanghai Stock Index station repaired a gap in the short jump at the same time, which is helpful to stabilize the market sentiment. In the later stage, it is nothing more than the way of changing time for space or space for time. Why is there such a strong backlash against the market? We can analyze it from three aspects. First, after the rapid adjustment of the market, the short-term oversold, the bottom reading funds enter the long and short game, and the market bottom recovery is accompanied by the amplification of trading volume. Secondly, the United States raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the “boots fell to the ground”. At the same time, the rate increase was moderate, easing the panic in the market. Finally, there is a military silence between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides are sincere in resolving contradictions through peace talks. Recently, Europe and the United States only put pressure on Russia through economic means, which will not worsen the situation for the time being. So global financial markets have a short respite.

It is comprehensively judged that the market oversold and rebounded to form a general rising situation, but the short trend has not been repaired, and the general rising situation is difficult to be sustained. Therefore, we temporarily define it as backpumping. The backpumping height is judged between the 10 day moving average and the 30 day moving average. It is suggested to reduce the holdings of stocks and reduce the positions. In addition, it is suggested to adjust the position structure and increase the position proportion of undervalued varieties in the digital economy, consumption and medical industries.

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