Looking back on Wednesday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets ushered in a major counterattack. After the three major stock indexes opened high, the inertia fell at the beginning of the session and accelerated the diving, which failed to effectively boost the market in the morning; In the afternoon, the index reversed dramatically. Led by financial stocks, it not only turned red smoothly, but also rose strongly. The Shanghai index walked out of the 100 point Changyang, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index performed more prominently.
As stated by Ping An Securities, the overall valuation of A-Shares is within a relatively reasonable range with the recovery of confidence, the market will rebound in the state of continuous oversold. In the rebound, it is suggested to give priority to the growth sector , especially the hard technology sector, such as semiconductor, new energy, energy storage, new energy automobile industry chain, etc.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that the market volume rose on Wednesday. Affected by the news, the risk appetite of the two cities increased sharply, and the market profit-making effect was excellent. it is expected that the market will continue to rebound, and pay attention to the volume of energy and the changes of the epidemic situation in China . In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on the layout of the middle line, and pay attention to the industries such as finance, building materials, steel, electrical equipment, TMT, etc.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the special meeting of financial stability and Development Committee on Wednesday made a more positive response to the hot issues in the market, which effectively soothed the current pessimistic market sentiment , the financial sector was greatly encouraged, and the index rose strongly in the afternoon, driving the index to rise.
In terms of the future market, the institution further put forward suggestions to lengthen the cycle to look at the fluctuation, the market liquidity support is still slightly insufficient, the willingness of foreign capital to increase holdings in the short term is low, and the upstream input inflation still has a strong suppression on the profit space of middle and lower reaches enterprises, in the face of oversold rebound, it is suggested to maintain a certain degree of caution .
Meanwhile, does not need to be overly pessimistic. Asset prices have basically reflected the recent negative factors, and the downward space is relatively limited , we suggest to balance the mentality, leave enough bullets, continue to pay attention to the opportunities formed in the continuous correction of high-quality targets in sectors such as new energy, traditional Chinese medicine, semiconductors, national defense and military industry, and pay close attention to the marginal changes in the prosperity of the industry, Choose the opportunity to allocate social services, real estate and other sectors that are expected to usher in a reversal.
Bohai Securities mentioned that Jinwen will revive market confidence. The rebound on Wednesday was dominated by emotional factors in the short term, a strong rebound cannot completely avoid the repeated process at the bottom of the market . However, the end of the policy is out. In the medium and long term, we continue to emphasize that the expectation of steady growth policy to promote the recovery of enterprise prosperity is relatively clear, and it is expected to bring the low point and rise of enterprise profits. After the recent process of panic and risk aversion, the probability of A-Shares is a relatively good low allocation opportunity in the year. It is suggested that investors should consider the long term and focus on the first quarter report and the performance expectation in the year.
Minsheng Securities believes that market bottom rebound, but also to find a new consensus After the policy bottom appears, there will be a phased bottom seeking rebound in the market. The stabilization and phased rebound of growth stocks can also be expected . Taking advantage of the window period of market bottoming rebound, we suggest switching the layout in the rebound: (1) under the main line of inflation: nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), crude oil (oil transportation, oil and gas exploitation) and coal. (2) Demand recovery: banking, real estate, construction. (3) Recommendation of growth sector: semiconductor, power grid and computer.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that “policy bottom” has been reflected, but it should be noted that, first, foreign capital will still be more cautious in China’s asset allocation before the end of the actual geopolitical risk; 2、 The market is still in a downward trend. As the actual policy implementation still takes time, from past experience, the market often goes through repeated bottom seeking process after the policy signal is issued . At present, it is the allocation window of medium and long-term value investment, and the company’s performance will still be the core to support the upward rise of stock price. You can pay attention to the performance of individual stocks in the performance disclosure window. Therefore, investors do not need to rush to “rebound” and can gradually increase allocation on bargain hunting.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned that on the whole, internal and external risks are gradually alleviated. It is expected that the market will usher in a phased repair window in the next month . In terms of operation strategy, on the one hand, the growth of science and technology has reached the bottom area, and the emotional repair window can find the target with uncertain performance to make a deep rebound; On the other hand, the “steady growth” continued to exert its power, and the allocation benefited from the financial, real estate and other sectors with strengthened policy expectations.
In addition, the market repair window focuses on securities companies . For technological growth , relevant sectors have entered the bottom area. At present, we can make a deep rebound along the photovoltaic, wind power, semiconductor and other sectors with strong performance certainty. At the same time, we can also find “small high-tech” 23456 from bottom to top based on the medium-term business trend and profit growth in the bottom area.
Macroscopically, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that at the interest rate meeting in March, the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate hike since 2018. The dot matrix chart shows that 12 members believe that interest rates will be increased at least six times in 2022. The economic forecast will reduce this year’s economic growth and significantly increase the level of inflation. Powell said that it is appropriate to continue to raise interest rates and can start to shrink the table as soon as may .
According to further analysis of the agency, it is estimated that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates about six times in the year, and the scale may be reduced or start in the middle of this year. The pace of interest rate increase is faster, and the pace of subsequent interest rate increase depends on the level of inflation and economic growth . In the short term, the yield of 10-year US bonds may fluctuate upward, and the yield of 10-year Chinese treasury bonds may fluctuate.
In terms of operational strategy, Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) believes that the rebound of the market will continue in the future, and we can pay attention to the following directions: 1) over falling stocks , from the performance of A-Shares in the period of sharp decline and rebound since 2008, the reversal effect is significant. In the rebound of the portfolio with large decline in the early stage, the increase is large, and the portfolio with more decline in a short time is more resilient 2) growth stocks represented by new energy , the industrial logic of the emerging industry zhugra cycle is still worth looking forward to.
In addition, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that the convening of the special meeting of the financial stability and Development Committee means that the policy bottom is gradually becoming clearer. Looking forward to the follow-up, we can further actively track the signal of economic stabilization around the “three low” and “double long” . We propose to shift from the “three high” allocation idea from 2019 to 2020 to the “three low” allocation idea in 2022. For the “three lows”, there are two clues: steady growth and new growth, of which steady growth is the main and new growth is the supplement first, the leader of large market value is preferred in the stable growth chain, covering the real estate chain, travel chain and the reform of state-owned enterprises second, explore small and beautiful in the new growth chain, covering domestic substitution, new energy +, national defense, etc.
