Investment suggestion: at present, we judge that the A-share market may have bottomed out in 2022, but the market environment is more complex due to high inflation, geographical conflicts and repeated epidemics. We suggest paying attention to these directions: (1) the theme of “steady growth”. In 2022, the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase and China’s demand is weak. In order to maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range, the national “steady growth” policy may be introduced, and relevant sectors will also take the lead. We can pay attention to infrastructure, building materials and real estate. (2) New economic theme. High end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to pay attention to chip semiconductors and high-end manufacturing with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid growth of the industry. (3) Emerging consumption themes. At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI rises slowly. The subsequent scissors difference between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliances sectors. (4) Epidemic Damage theme. With the further improvement of vaccination rates in developing countries such as Africa, Mexico and Brazil, the global epidemic is expected to be further controlled. There is momentum for valuation and repair in the affected sectors of the epidemic, which can be paid attention to: airports, tourism and cinemas.
Hot topics focus on: (1) electronic ID card, or accelerate the development of Ctid platform. On March 11, Premier Li Keqiang attended a press conference, at which he said: “this year, we will implement a policy that is to make people’s commonly used ID cards electronic.” We believe that with its mature service technologies such as information comparison and network identity authentication, electronic licenses are expected to usher in a high-speed development cycle with the support of government affairs, people’s livelihood, transportation and other aspects, as well as relevant policies. Industries such as system platform construction, information security and encrypted signature are expected to benefit. The relevant targets include: Linewell Software Co.Ltd(603636) , Beijing Certificate Authority Co.Ltd(300579) and Newland Digital Technology Co.Ltd(000997) . (2) Covid-19 antigen self-test products have been approved, and the pharmaceutical sector may welcome collective boost. On March 11, in order to further optimize the covid-19 virus detection strategy, according to the needs of epidemic prevention and control, the comprehensive group of joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council decided to promote the monitoring mode of “antigen screening and nucleic acid diagnosis”, and add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection. We believe that antigen detection, as an important supplementary means of nucleic acid detection, is expected to play an important role in this round of sporadic epidemic prevention in many places, and relevant industries may also benefit from it. Relevant targets include: Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , etc. (3) The e-cigarette management measures have been put into effect, and strong supervision has helped the healthy development of the industry. On March 11, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued the measures for the administration of electronic cigarettes, which will come into force on May 1, 2022. On the whole, the implementation of management measures and the marginal easing of export supervision may have a certain impact on the e-cigarette industry in the short term. However, in the long run, stricter industry supervision is conducive to forcing the upgrading of industry technology and the improvement of industry access threshold, and the concentration of industry leaders is expected to further increase. Related subjects include: smore international, etc.
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics from March 7 to March 11, bicycles, electric vehicles, covid-19 pneumonia detection box, in vitro diagnosis and service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) etc. The main reason is that affected by the scattered epidemic, relevant sectors are sought after. The top five declines were rubber, mining services, rare metals, music industry and oil and gas exploration. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept sectors is high, and there has been an obvious adjustment in the recent tightening of funds.
From March 7 to March 11, among shenwanyi industries, the top five gainers last week were comprehensive, medicine and biology, architectural decoration, communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery; The top five declines were petroleum and petrochemical, national defense and military industry, non-ferrous metals, steel and transportation. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are nursing, comprehensive, social services, environmental protection and building materials. The top five cumulative net outflows are electronics, basic chemicals, computers, non bank finance and mechanical equipment.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; The risk of repeated outbreaks exceeded expectations.
