\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 822 Shenzhen Zhongzhuang Construction Group Co.Ltd(002822) )
Decoration “dark horse” has a stable operation and strategic transformation IDC and new energy: the company is mainly engaged in the decoration design and engineering construction of public buildings and high-end residential buildings. At the same time, it actively extends its layout to the fields of housing construction, curtain wall, municipal administration, landscape garden and so on around the decoration industry chain, and is committed to becoming a comprehensive service operator for urban and rural construction. The company focuses on public clothes, operates steadily and has low dependence on a single customer. It is relatively less affected by the “storm” of individual real estate enterprises in 2021. While deeply cultivating the main decoration industry, the company actively plans strategic transformation. Combined with its own reality and the development trend of emerging industries, the company takes the fields of property management, IDC and new energy as the direction of strategic transformation. The company obtained 25% equity of SEG property through mixed reform and acquired the controlling equity of science and Technology Park property through M & A, and the property management sector rose rapidly. The company is actively transforming to IDC and new energy fields. The company has established two platforms, Zhongzhuang cloud technology and Zhongzhuang new energy. It cuts into IDC and new energy business fields through extension expansion and EPC. It is expected to achieve performance contribution in 2022.
The project of “counting from the east to the west” was launched, and the layout of IDC was at the right time. “Computing from the east to the west” is a new computing power network system integrating data center, cloud computing and big data, which orderly guides the computing power needs of the east to the west, optimizes the construction layout of the data center, and promotes the collaborative linkage between the East and the West. “Counting from the east to the west” is an important foundation for China’s development of digital economy. Its core is to serve the needs of different business formats and computing power scenarios in industrial digital transformation, and help the development of IDC industry, a subdivided field of new infrastructure. It is expected that China’s IDC market scale will exceed 590 billion yuan in 2025, and the IDC market scale is expected to achieve a compound growth rate of 24.68% from 2021 to 2025. The company attaches great importance to IDC business development. In May 2020, cloud technology acquired 60% equity of kuanyuan electronics by cash acquisition. The latter owns Wusha (kuanyuan) IDC project, which covers an area of 56.9 mu, with a total investment of about 1.5 billion yuan and plans 10000 standard cabinets. At present, the first phase of the project is progressing smoothly. It is expected to be capped and put into use by the end of March. The second phase of the project will be started in the second half of the year, and 2500 cabinets are expected to be added. The company will carry out the construction and operation of Wusha (kuanyuan) IDC project with the best scheme, and strive to build it into a super five-star data center and national green data center. The company’s IDC business layout is at the right time, and with the east wind of “counting from the east to the West”, it will develop well in the future.
With the advent of “carbon peak and carbon neutralization”, green energy has great potential. In September 2020, president Xi Jinping first proposed the goal of “3060 double carbon”. Carbon peaking and carbon neutralization have become the main theme of China’s economy. In October 2021, the State Council issued the notice on the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 to implement the “ten actions for carbon peak” and “carbon peak” received strong policy support. In the context of “3060 dual carbon”, green energy ushered in a historical opportunity. In June 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on submitting the pilot scheme for the development of distributed photovoltaic on the roof of the whole county (city, district), which plans to carry out the pilot work for the development of distributed photovoltaic on the roof of the whole county (city, district) nationwide, and BIPV ushered in an opportunity. The company actively responds to national policies and distributes green energy. In mid July 2017, China new energy was established, committed to the investment, construction and operation of new energy projects. Focusing on the development and operation of wind energy, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , comprehensive energy storage and so on, it has created BIPV projects such as roof photovoltaic power generation of national speed skating hall. The company adopts the strong and strong alliance strategy, establishes a strategic cooperative relationship with Ruike new energy, and is jointly committed to the development of new energy business. At the same time, the company gradually holds high-quality operational green power assets – Xuchang decentralized wind power EPC project, realizing the transformation of the new energy sector from engineering driven to engineering + operation two wheel drive, and the company’s green energy has great prospects.
Investment suggestion: we expect that the growth rate of the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 12.06%, 30.31% and 22.35% respectively, the growth rate of net profit will be – 9.9%, 50.7% and 30.4% respectively, and the earnings per share will be 0.32 yuan, 0.49 yuan and 0.63 yuan. The company’s dynamic PE is 20.3x, 13.5x and 10.3x respectively, and Pb is 1.3x, 1.2x and 1.1x respectively. The company focuses on the field of public clothing business, operates steadily and has low dependence on a single customer. In 2021, the “storm” of individual large real estate enterprises has limited impact on the company, and the company’s performance is expected to hit the bottom and rise. In 2022, the company will usher in the policy east wind of “counting from the east to the west”, “carbon peak and carbon neutralization”. The company’s IDC business and new energy business are expected to achieve rapid growth, and the release of performance is imperative to help improve the company’s valuation. We are optimistic about the growth space of “decorative dark horse” and the layout of IDC and new energy, and maintain the company’s “Buy-A” rating. The target price is 8.54 yuan, equivalent to 17.4 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2022.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations, decline in China’s fixed investment, lag in project payment collection, slow promotion of property management, less than expected IDC construction and leasing, slow layout in the field of new energy and other risks.
