\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Event: the company released the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022. From January to February, the company realized an operating revenue of about 10.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 50%, and the performance growth exceeded expectations.
The company's performance is bright and optimistic about the growth potential in 2022: Recently, the company has successively released the performance express of 2021 and the business data announcement from January to February 2022, with bright performance. According to the company's performance express, the company's revenue in 2021 reached 62.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.05%; Meanwhile, the net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February 2022 increased by about 50% year-on-year. The substantial growth of the company's performance mainly benefits from:
1) the installed capacity of nuclear power and new energy sector increased steadily: in terms of nuclear power, the company benefited from the commissioning of Fuqing No. 5 and Tianwan No. 6 units in the first half of last year. By the end of 2021, the company's nuclear power installed capacity in operation reached 22.55gw (an increase of 2.34gw). With the commissioning of Fuqing No. 6 unit at the beginning of this year, it will further bring 1.16gw new installed capacity to the company. In terms of new energy, by the end of 2021, the company had 8.87gw of installed capacity (3.62gw newly added), including 2.63gw of wind power, 6.24gw of photovoltaic power and 30GW in the 14th five year plan.
2) increase of utilization hours of nuclear power: according to the announcement of the company, the utilization hours in 2021 reached 7871 hours, an increase of 250 hours year-on-year.
3) the market-oriented electricity price of nuclear power rises: according to the annual trading results of electric power in all provinces in 2022, Jiangsu requires that the annual market-oriented trading electricity of nuclear power should not be less than 20 billion kwh, of which the annual trading electricity should not be less than 16 billion kwh, which has risen by nearly 20% with the coal electricity price; Zhejiang requires that CNNC Qinshan Phase I market-oriented trading electricity account for 50%, and Sanmen Nuclear Power market-oriented trading electricity account for 10%; This part of electricity also rises.
Under the background of unknown situation in Russia and Ukraine and intensified epidemic situation, deterministic growth highlights scarcity: the company's performance has both growth and certainty. 1) nuclear power has priority dispatching right, and the utilization hours are basically fixed. Except for equipment maintenance, it can basically be fully utilized, and the utilization hours can be as high as 78008000 hours; 2) The cost is basically fixed, the proportion of fuel cost is low, and the cost composition is mainly depreciation; 3) Electricity price without subsidy, low downside risk and excellent cash flow; 4) The depreciation life is lower than the actual service life. As a stable clean power operation enterprise, the company's performance has increased steadily with the installation and operation of nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaic, which reflects the scarcity under the background of unknown situation outside China.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 74.352 billion yuan and 78.353 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 19.0% and 5.4% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 11.471 billion yuan and 12.608 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 43.0% and 9.9% respectively; Maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 10.0 yuan
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project commissioning progress is less than expected, and the project approval progress is less than expected.
