\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 128 Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) )
Key investment points
It is proposed to establish a joint venture air cargo company to greatly enhance the stability of the air logistics supply chain
1) event: Based on the principles of equality and mutual benefit, complementary advantages and common development, the company plans to invest in a joint venture with Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) and zhidu to establish Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) airlines, with the registered capital of the three parties accounting for 55%, 40% and 5% respectively.
2) mode: Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) Airlines is committed to providing full link international aviation logistics services for manufacturing or e-commerce platform enterprises. In the follow-up, it plans to join hands with tripartite shareholders to build the main hub center of " Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) aviation warehouse in Dawan district" in Guangzhou (covering an area of about 500000 square meters), and undertake the operation links of main airport cargo stations in Dawan District in advance, so as to realize the full link innovative business format of international aviation logistics point-to-point.
3) barriers: the government has a high degree of control over the aviation logistics industry. The notice on strengthening the market access management of new airlines issued by the Civil Aviation Administration in 2016 strictly controls the number of new airlines, which has extremely high policy barriers. In addition, the synergy between cargo volume demand and marketing network layout and aviation logistics companies is also very important, so it also has very high scale barriers.
On the whole, on the one hand, the air cargo market in South China is broad. In 2021, the import and export value of Guangdong province accounted for 21.1% of the national import and export value, while the cargo and mail throughput of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) accounted for 20.3% of the National Airport cargo and mail throughput, and there is no risk of demand in the hinterland; On the other hand, aviation logistics has extremely high access barriers. At present, there are only 11 cargo aviation licenses in China. License qualification and customs clearance trunk nodes are important resources. The Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) cooperation layout of air cargo companies is expected to realize the triple strategic card position of region, license and link, and further build a business moat.
Gradually open the road of strategic cooperation to realize the quality and efficiency improvement of extension expansion and resource integration
Since this year, the company has actively carried out multi-party strategic cooperation. Previously, in February, the company has signed a strategic cooperation framework with postal express to jointly promote the construction of global network, customs clearance resource sharing and landing distribution services. On March 15, the company also reached a strategic cooperation agreement with Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) to provide customers with full link logistics service solutions by combining its full cargo aircraft, passenger aircraft belly compartment and other transport capacity resources. The cooperation since this year will greatly enhance Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) its hard strength in the field of cross-border logistics, and continuously consolidate the strategic position of cross-border logistics core assets in the medium and long term through the layout of key nodes, the optimization of customer structure and the increase of scale share.
The company's international air and sea freight forwarders are basically consolidated, and cross-border e-commerce logistics has created the second growth pole
With the market-oriented style superimposed by the genes of central enterprises, the company has been able to cut into the emerging track of cross-border e-commerce logistics through positive extension expansion rhythm and excellent post merger management based on the basic sector of traditional air and sea freight forwarders, so as to obtain relatively high premium dividends of service quality and performance chain. In addition, we believe that the dividends after the resource integration of the logistics sector of the two central enterprises of Chengtong Group and China Railway Material Group will gradually highlight. The company is the only entity operating cross-border comprehensive logistics in the listed platforms of the two groups. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment value of cross-border logistics core assets in the process of China's manufacturing industry going to sea.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the company will benefit from the dividend of the strategic integration of the central enterprise logistics platform and the gradual prominence of the strategic value of cross-border logistics core assets under the top-level design, and cross-border e-commerce logistics will build an important second growth pole, we expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 869 million yuan, 1108 million yuan and 1397 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 63.8%, 27.5% and 26.1% respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: international logistics freight rate fluctuates sharply; Cross border e-commerce consumer demand fell; Strategic cooperation has not progressed as expected.
