\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Event: the company announced that it plans to build two 1200 ton / day photovoltaic glass production lines in Malaysia, with a project investment of 3.12 billion yuan and a construction period of 16 months; At the same time, supporting the construction of a production line with an annual output of 1.2 million tons of super silica sand, with an investment of 850 million yuan and a construction period of 13 months. In addition, the company plans to invest 492 million yuan to build a distributed photovoltaic power generation project in its own factory, with a total installed capacity of 143mwp.
Comments:
Add weight to the photovoltaic field to create new performance growth points. We believe that the company has actively laid out the photovoltaic field, embraced the new energy track, and built the second main business of photovoltaic, which is beginning to take shape. According to the company's photovoltaic glass construction plan, in the early stage, the company has planned to build five 1200 T / D production lines and supporting deep-processing production lines in Chenzhou, Hunan, Zhangzhou, Fujian, Shaoxing, Zhejiang and Ningbo, Zhejiang. At the same time, considering the 2500 t / D production lines, it is expected that the company's photovoltaic glass production capacity will reach 10900 T / D by the end of 2023. If the subsequent company has a new production expansion plan, the company's photovoltaic glass production capacity will jump to the top of the industry in the future, With the continuous production of photovoltaic glass capacity, it will bring new performance growth points. The establishment of a subsidiary of the company to build a distributed photovoltaic power station project can, on the one hand, improve its own power generation and reduce the cost of electricity; On the other hand, the company has accumulated experience in the construction and operation of photovoltaic power stations. In the future, under the background of double carbon, the company is expected to lay out the photovoltaic field at a deeper level.
The price of photovoltaic glass is at the bottom of the stage to curb the disorderly expansion of production capacity. According to Zhuo Chuang information data, at present, the price of photovoltaic glass 3.2mm (coated) is about 26 yuan / m2, and the price of 2mm (coated) is about 20 yuan / m2; We believe that the current price has basically dropped to the cost line of small factories, curbing the disorderly expansion of the industry to a certain extent, which is conducive to the standardized development of the industry; In the medium term, under the guidance of the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization", the photovoltaic industry is expected to maintain rapid development in the future. It is expected that the global average annual new installed capacity will reach 210260gw during the 14th Five Year Plan period. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of double glass modules, the demand for photovoltaic glass will maintain high growth; Leading companies have the advantages of capital, channel and cost, which is more conducive to capacity expansion and quickly seize market share.
The short-term epidemic has repeatedly affected demand and is optimistic about a new round of price rise after the epidemic improves. We believe that in the short term, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the recovery of downstream demand is less than expected, and the price weakens in the short term. However, under the background of steady growth, the marginal relaxation of urban policies in various parts of the real estate industry, and the gradual recovery of real estate investment throughout the year is obvious; From 2018 to 2021, the sales area of real estate exceeded 1.7 billion square meters. With the arrival of the housing delivery cycle and the background of guaranteed housing delivery, the new construction of real estate accelerated the transmission of support demand to completion, and the demand for completion of real estate remained resilient. We judge that with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the orders postponed since the second half of last year will catch up, the suppressed demand will be released, and the downstream traders will open a new round of replenishment. According to the calculation of 50% dividend ratio, the dividend rate corresponding to the current market value exceeds 6%. Undervalued and high dividends are very attractive to medium and long-term investors.
New businesses hope to welcome breakthroughs and open up space for future growth. The company's electronic glass technology path has basically achieved a breakthrough. At present, it actively expands downstream channels, is expected to achieve large-scale commercialization in 22 years, and the construction of phase II project has been started; At the same time, the first phase of neutral borosilicate medicinal glass has been put into operation at the end of January 21. With the breakthrough of technical bottleneck and the advent of products, the capacity expansion is expected to accelerate; Electronic glass and neutral borosilicate tube have broad domestic substitution space. Relying on the advantages of resources, channels and costs, the company is expected to emerge suddenly. In the future, the product structure will be more optimized, high-end products will improve the company's competitive barriers, and the overall valuation is expected to rise.
Investment suggestion: the rapid development of the company's photovoltaic business brings new performance growth points, and the extension of the industrial chain opens up future growth. We maintained the company's performance of 4.44 billion yuan, 4.73 billion yuan and 6.07 billion yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, with corresponding EPS of 1.64, 1.76 and 2.26 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE valuation of 7.4, 6.8 and 5.3 times respectively; Maintain the "buy" rating and maintain the target price range of 24.18-26.04 yuan.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials continues to rise, and the cost pressure intensifies; Real estate investment is significantly lower than expected; The progress of new business development is less than expected; Environmental protection supervision was relaxed, and the withdrawal progress of production capacity was less than expected.
