\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 984 Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) )
Event: the company announced the 2022 stock option incentive plan (Draft), which plans to grant 20.687 million stock options to 466 incentive objects, accounting for 3.18% of the total share capital of the company at the time of announcement of the draft incentive plan, and the exercise price is 24.31 yuan per share. The company’s performance assessment conditions for 100% exercise of stock options in the incentive plan are as follows: 1) based on the company’s operating revenue in 2021, the growth rate of the company’s operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than (including) 35%, 70% and 100%; 2) From 2022 to 2024, the net profit margin of the company’s sales shall not be less than (including) 15%. In addition, the personal assessment objective is that the personal performance assessment result of the previous year is a.
The price of raw materials has stabilized, the tension of shipping has eased, and the company’s performance is expected to reverse quarter by quarter. In 2021, the company’s performance was disturbed by multiple negative factors such as raw materials and shipping. At present, the cost of comprehensive raw materials in the industry is steadily decreasing. According to wind data, the average price of natural rubber, synthetic rubber (CIS polybutadiene rubber) and carbon black in the first quarter was + 5.8%, – 7.2% and – 1.8% respectively compared with the fourth quarter of last year. At the same time, the tension of shipping containers in China and Southeast Asia tended to ease in the first quarter, and the operating rate of the company is expected to increase significantly compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Under the background of better exports and higher price centers in overseas markets, the company is expected to continue the price increase policy in the second half of last year, continue to transfer the cost of raw materials to the downstream and realize the repair of profit margin.
The incentive plan mobilized the subjective initiative of employees, and the company’s capacity expansion was steadily promoted. The incentive plan involves 466 objects, including 6 senior executives such as the Secretary of the board of directors and the chief financial officer, and 460 middle managers and core technicians. The human efficiency level of the company is leading in the industry, thanks to the high intelligence of the factory and the rich industrial technical experience of employees. The incentive plan is expected to further mobilize the subjective initiative of employees and ensure the maximization of production benefits. At present, the second phase of the company’s Thai plant has been basically completed, and it is expected to release the production capacity of 3 million semi steel tires and 800000 all steel tires this year, contributing to important performance increment. At the same time, the company is accelerating the construction of factories in Spain. After the completion of the project, it is expected to become the first smart tire factory of Chinese tire enterprises in European and American developed countries. We predict that the total tire production capacity of the company will exceed 45 million by 2025, double the production capacity of 22 million by the end of 2021.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.253/18.02/2.414 billion, corresponding to the current PE of 15.4x/10.7x/8.0x respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the project construction lags behind the expectation; Changes in tariff barrier policies; The price of raw materials fluctuates violently
