\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 008 Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) )
Event:
Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) 2022 announcement on March 10: from January to February 2022, with the first generation of ddr5 memory interface chip, memory module supporting chip and the third generation of chip ® CPU and other new products continued to ship, and the company made a good start. From January to February 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 620 million yuan, an increase of about 211% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 157%.
Comments:
Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) 22 January February operation exceeded expectations. (1) Year on year: referring to the company’s historical Q1 performance, the revenue in 2019, 2020 and 2021 was RMB 410 million, RMB 500 million and RMB 300 million respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 230 million yuan, 260 million yuan and 130 million yuan respectively Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) 2022: the revenue of 620 million yuan and the net profit of 220 million yuan from January to February have exceeded the revenue and profit performance in the later stage of DDR4. (2) On a month on month basis, the company’s revenue of 21q4 is about 969 million yuan and net profit of 317 million yuan. The profit from January to February of 22 years has demonstrated the high profitability of memory interface chips and memory supporting chips in the early stage of ddr5 penetration. We believe that the company’s ddr5 gross profit margin will exceed market expectations.
Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) is the world’s No. 1 subdivision track and one of the few enterprises with global competitiveness in China. It is an international leading data processing and interconnection chip design company, and is committed to becoming a platform enterprise in the fields of computing, storage and interconnection in the field of server and data center Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) is the largest memory interface chip supplier in the world. The company has a full range of memory interface chip products from DDR2 to ddr5, and has obtained strategic shares from Intel and Samsung. 1. Storage: ddr5 has far more market space than DDR4. As the king of DDR4, ddr5 is expected to benefit deeply. Memory technology has developed to ddr5 generation. Compared with DDR4 memory module, ddr5 needs to be equipped with other special supporting chips in addition to memory particles and memory interface chips Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) not only introduced the first generation of ddr5 memory interface chip RCD / DB, but also introduced three supporting chips ddr5pmic, TS and spdhub for the first time.
Ddr5 related chips began mass production and shipment in 2021q4, and the quantity is continuous and large-scale. From an industry perspective, in ddr5 generation, in addition to memory interface chips, server memory modules need three supporting chips (SPD, TS and PMIC), and udimm and sodimm of PC and notebook computers need two supporting chips (SPD and PMIC). The value of the whole ddr5 related chips is higher than that of DDR4 generation. Since ddr5 is a brand-new product, the rhythm of loading related chips needs to be further observed. If we refer to the penetration rhythm of DDR4 memory interface chip, the penetration rate of each generation of products can reach about 20 ~ 30% at the end of 12 months and 50 ~ 70% at the end of 24 months. Basically, this generation has completed most of the penetration of the market at the end of 36 months.
At present, the research and development of the second generation memory interface chip of ddr5 is advancing as planned. In the process of replacement of subsequent generations of ddr5, we expect that the company will continue to maintain its competitive advantage. On the one hand, the company’s technology is leading, on the other hand, it is also related to the company’s industry position in JEDEC. Lanqi is one of the three Chinese companies on the board of directors of JEDEC. At the same time, it holds the position of chairman in three committees and branches under JEDEC, and deeply participates in the formulation of standards for relevant products in this segment.
In the future, memory interface chips may be applied to PC or laptop. At this stage, memory interface chip is mainly used in server related memory modules. In order to cope with the continuous improvement of transmission rate, the memory module with low requirements for signal buffer may also increase the demand for corresponding buffer chip. The industry is discussing that in the medium term of ddr5, it is planned to add a clock driver chip (CKD) on udimm and sodimm of PC and notebook computers to buffer and re drive the clock signal of memory module, so as to improve the signal integrity and reliability of clock signal. At present, JEDEC (solid State Technology Association) is formulating the standard of corresponding products.
According to the relevant information released by JEDEC, ddr5 memory interface chip has planned three generations, with supporting rates of 4800mbps, 5600mbps and 6400mbps respectively. It is expected that there may be 1 ~ 2 generations in the future, and the maximum rate may support 8400mbps. The company also needs to further observe the iteration speed of ddr5 memory interface chip. There has been preliminary discussion on ddr6 in the industry, and the company will participate in the discussion and formulation of relevant standards.
2. Interconnection: PCIe retimer chip will contribute important increment. PCIe is now the mainstream solution of server bus. The doubling of data transmission speed brings prominent problems of signal attenuation and reference clock timing reorganization. Therefore, PCIe retimer chip will have a huge application space. Pcie4 developed by the company 0retimer chip has been successfully mass produced and can be applied to typical application scenarios such as nvmessd, AI server, riser card and so on.
In recent years, the high-speed data transmission protocol has been developed by pcie3 0 to pcie4 0. The data rate is increased from 8gt / s to 16gt / s and pcie5 0、PCIe6. 0, the data rate will be further increased to 32gt / s and 64gt / s. while doubling the data transmission speed, it will bring prominent problems of signal attenuation and reference clock timing reorganization. PCIe retimer chip mainly solves the problems of uneven signal timing, large loss and poor integrity of data center server in high-speed and long-distance data transmission. Therefore, the industry expects that with the continuous improvement of transmission rate, there will be more and more demand for PCIe retimer chips.
Because pcie4.0 is supported The mainstream server CPU of pcie4.0 was officially launched in 2021q2. At present, pcie4.0 The permeability of pcie4.0 is still at a low level 0retimer chip has just begun to be introduced into the market, pcie4 It will take time to improve the ecology. The industry expects that in 2022, with the increase of industry penetration, high-speed peripheral manufacturers will invest in pcie4 0 transition, pcie4 The demand for 0retimer chips will increase significantly. Meanwhile, with the support of PCIe 5.0 in 2022 0’s mainstream server CPU is on the market, pcie5 0retimer chip is expected to be gradually introduced into the market.
At the beginning of 2019, led by Intel Corporation, several internationally renowned companies jointly launched CXL (computeexpresslink) standard, which aims to provide efficient, high-speed and low latency interface between CPU and special accelerator and high-performance storage system, so as to meet the needs of resource sharing, memory pooling and efficient operation scheduling. CXL technology can improve the data exchange efficiency of various modules between systems, solve the problem of cache consistency, significantly improve the communication ability between multi-channel CPUs, CPUs and accelerators, reduce latency, and realize the ultra-high-speed interconnection between CPUs in data centers and accelerator chips, so as to improve the performance of data intensive applications.
The development of CXL technology will create some new market opportunities. The company has accumulated some technology in relevant fields, including pcie5 0retimer chip can realize PCIe / CXL dual-mode operation according to system requirements. The company will timely distribute relevant products according to the cutting-edge technology trends and opportunities in the industry.
3. Calculation: the CPU space of Tianjin capture platform is huge, the CPU of Tianjin capture platform starts rapidly, and the profitability will exceed the market expectation. Jinchuan CPU is a series of x86 architecture processors with pre detection and dynamic security monitoring functions launched by the company, which is suitable for Jinchuan or other general server platforms Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) officially launched the third generation of Jinchuan CPU products with higher performance in April 2021. Many domestic CPU manufacturers, such as langjin and xinhuajin, have actively responded to the requirements of the third generation of CPU security applications, such as langjin and xinhuajin, which have been launched in April 2021, and many domestic CPU products, such as langjin and xinhuajin, have been actively supported by the third generation of CPU security applications.
Repo and senior executives’ overweight demonstrated confidence. (1) The increase of senior executives’ holdings shows confidence: the chairman and CEO and the director and general manager increase their holdings by about 20 million yuan. (2) Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) announced in October 2021 that the company plans to repurchase the company’s shares with its own funds of RMB Changshu Guorui Technology Co.Ltd(300600) million, and the repurchase price shall not exceed 86 yuan / share. As of February 28, 2022, the company has repurchased 3873000 shares of the company through the trading system of Shanghai stock exchange through centralized bidding, accounting for 0.34% of the company’s total share capital of 1132824111 shares. The highest price of repurchase is 84.99 yuan / share, the lowest price is 72.56 yuan / share, and the total amount of funds paid is 30 Shanghai Kehua Bio-Engineering Co.Ltd(002022) 956 yuan (excluding stamp duty, transaction commission and other transaction expenses).
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: actively grasp the bottom platform leader, and have clear short, medium and long-term product logic. Billows
Qiqi technology is the first in the world and one of the few enterprises with global competitiveness in China. It is an international leading data processing and interconnection chip design company. It is committed to becoming a platform enterprise in the fields of computing, storage and interconnection in the field of server and data center. In the future, the company’s memory interface chip business is expected to deeply benefit from the large volume of ddr5 memory interface chips and supporting chips; At the same time, we are optimistic about the domestic alternative space of the company’s Tianjin capture server platform and the large volume of PCIe retimer chips. According to the performance express, taking into account the increase of the company’s market share of capture servers and the technical barriers of memory interface chips in the future, we maintain the prediction of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 21-23 years as 829 million yuan, 1507 million yuan and 2.151 billion yuan, corresponding to pe102 / 56 / 39x, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: ddr5 progress is less than expected, and technology research and development is less than expected.
