\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 756 Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) )
Events
On the evening of March 16, the company released the main operating data from January to February 2022. From January to February, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 1.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 96%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 490 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 650%. From January to February, the company’s lithium new energy business achieved an operating revenue of about 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 670%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 3700%.
Commentary
The performance elasticity of self owned mining companies began to appear. The net profit from January to February was about 490 million yuan, of which the performance of lithium carbonate was about 420 million yuan and that of stainless steel was about 70 million yuan. Considering the impact of overhaul during the Spring Festival, the sales volume of lithium carbonate is expected to be about 1700 tons from January to February, and the net profit per ton of lithium carbonate is estimated to be about 247000 yuan. From January to February, the price of mica raw ore rose, and the cost increased slightly due to the superposition of factors such as electricity price and natural gas price rise, and the performance was in line with expectations.
The amount of lithium carbonate increased by 20000 tons in 22 years, and the cost still has room to decline. 20000 tons of new lithium carbonate capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of the first quarter and 10000 tons at the end of the second quarter, contributing to the flexibility of performance. At the same time, the supporting 1.8 million tons of beneficiation capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of July, realizing 100% self supply of resources. The separation of feldspar and quartz by-products at the beneficiation end has been successful in the laboratory and will be verified and used on the production line in the future. The added value of by-products has been improved, the sales radius has been expanded, the utilization of leaching slag at the smelting end is under research and development, and the comprehensive cost still has room for further reduction.
It is emphasized that the company’s performance has high cashing degree and strong certainty, and its growth is worth looking forward to. The company’s original main business, stainless steel rod and wire rod, maintained the second market share in the industry, with stable profitability and strong safety margin. The lithium business recently signed cooperation agreements with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Jiangxi tungsten industry respectively. In January, it announced that it would jointly build 50000 tons of lithium carbonate with Ningde, and the equity production capacity of the company was 15000 tons. The joint venture was established in early March; In February, it was announced to jointly build 20000 tons of lithium carbonate with Jiangxi tungsten industry, and the equity capacity of the company is about 10000 tons. In the future, there is still room for 25000 tons of capacity improvement, and the growth is worth looking forward to. The factory building of the company’s ultra wide temperature zone and ultra long life battery project has been completed. At present, it is in the stage of mass sample delivery and is expected to be put into operation in the first half of this year.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be RMB 900 million, RMB 4086 million and RMB 4933 million respectively, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 2.22, RMB 10.07 and RMB 12.15 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 42 times, 12 times and 10 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Downstream demand is lower than expected; The new capacity and re production capacity of lithium ore exceeded expectations.
