\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
The performance achieved a good start, and the net profit from January to February increased by about 50% year-on-year. The company announced that from January to February 2022, all units operated well, and the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 10.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 27%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of about 50% year-on-year.
The increase in net profit attributable to the parent company is about 530 million yuan, which is expected to mainly come from the release of nuclear power installation performance, the rise of electricity price and the operation of new energy. In 2021, Tianwan 6 (1.11gw) and Fuqing 5 (1.16gw) of nuclear power units will be put into operation in February and June 2021 respectively. We expect that the two units can contribute about 30% of the profit increment; The installed capacity of new energy increased by more than 3.6gw in 2021. Considering that the grid connected installed capacity or full capacity has not been realized at the end of 2021, it is expected to contribute about 20% of the profit increment from January to February. In addition, more than 45% of the contribution is expected to come from the year-on-year rise of nuclear power prices in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and other places. The cost of nuclear power overhaul is the same or reduced to a certain extent.
Gross profit margin and net profit margin are expected to increase significantly. According to the disclosed data, considering the equity installed capacity of about 50% of the equity installed capacity of the nuclear power plant, we compare the indicators of net profit / operating revenue attributable to the parent company. In the first quarter of 20192021, the net profit / operating revenue attributable to the parent company was about 12.9%, 9.7% and 13.0% respectively, and the gross profit margin was in the range of 43% to 46%. From January to February 2022, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company / operating revenue reached 14.7%. It is expected that the cost rate of the company will remain stable during the period, mainly benefiting from the increase of electricity price and utilization hours, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin will increase significantly in the first quarter and the whole year of 2022.
Under the "double carbon" goal, the profitability of nuclear power will maintain a relatively high level. With the transformation of "double carbon" target, nuclear power has the advantages of green, low comprehensive cost, stable output and high energy density. During the construction of the new power system, the price of electric energy generally rises, the utilization hours of nuclear power and the price of electricity have room to rise, and the profitability can be maintained at a high level; Nuclear power approval has returned to normal, and the medium and long-term installed capacity has increased steadily; In addition, the cost of the third and fourth generation nuclear power projects with safety advantages has room to decline, and the yield will continue to rise.
New energy also drives performance growth with sufficient space. According to the company's "14th five year plan" guidelines, the company plans to achieve 30GW of new energy holding installed capacity by 2025, about six times that of new energy at the end of 2020, driving performance growth. In the future, China Nuclear Huineng, the company's new energy platform, is expected to complete the war. According to the current market valuation and the net profit and net asset scale of China Nuclear Huineng, it is expected to raise about 10-12 billion yuan. In addition, nuclear power provides sufficient cash flow. It is expected that the company will have less pressure and sufficient space to develop new energy financing in the 14th five year plan.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of new energy and nuclear power did not meet expectations, the electricity price was lower than expected, and the utilization rate of nuclear power declined.
Investment advice: maintain the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. Based on the release performance of intensive operation of three nuclear power plants in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the current and future nuclear power price will rise, the utilization rate will increase, the installed growth rate of new energy is expected to further increase, and the performance growth in 2022 is expected to reach a new high in recent years. Accordingly, maintain the profit forecast and target price. It is expected that the company's earnings per share in the 21st-23rd year will be 0.44/0.68/0.74 yuan, and the growth rate of net profit will be 34% / 54% / 9% respectively. Give about 15.9-16.7 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable valuation of about 10.83-11.38 yuan. Maintain the "buy" rating.
