\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 786 Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) )
The impact of external factors such as the epidemic situation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the company is controllable. According to the institutional research information announcement released by the company on March 16: 1) the impact of the epidemic in China is controllable. The company said that from the current production scheduling and sales situation, the company’s production and operation are within the normal range under the current epidemic environment; 2) The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is controllable. The company’s products sold overseas are produced in China and then transported overseas. The shipping time is usually 1 ~ 2 months. At present, the production and delivery of the company are normal and have not been affected. Up to now, the production department of the company has not received the notice of the main engine factory to adjust production.
Since q21, the production and sales trend of core customers has been good. 1) 4q21 Volkswagen Group’s sales volume rebounded month on month. The sales volume of Volkswagen Group, the core customer of 4q21 company, was 2.11 million, with a month on month ratio of – 25.9% / + 16.9% respectively; 2) The sales volume of Volkswagen Group is expected to recover year-on-year in 2022. From January to February 2022, the sales volume of FAW Volkswagen + SAIC Volkswagen reached 533000, a year-on-year increase of + 12.8%. On March 15, Volkswagen Group announced at the performance conference that the sales growth target in 2022 is 5% – 10%. We believe that the company’s core customer Volkswagen has been in a continuous recovery trend since 4q21, and the company will benefit simultaneously.
The company has sufficient reserves of products and projects and sufficient growth momentum. The company actively responds to the trend of vehicle electrification and has initially realized the market layout of products covering first-class new energy vehicle enterprises at home and abroad. At present, the company’s lamp controller, thermal management actuator, AGS actuator, atmosphere lamp, USB, chassis controller and other products have been designated by Porsche, Volkswagen, Geely, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal, great wall and other new energy vehicle projects respectively. In 2021, the company’s headlamp controller, USB, adaptive suspension controller and other products entered the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) customer market of FAW Hongqi, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other Chinese customers. At the same time, the company has successfully passed the review of Toyota’s potential supplier system, laying a foundation for entering Toyota’s global supplier system in the future. We believe that the company has sufficient project reserves. From 2022 to 2023, important projects such as Volkswagen ambient light, BMW tail light controller, Ford & Renault headlamp controller and local new energy vehicle enterprise domain controller are expected to bring significant increment, with sufficient medium and long-term growth momentum.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 2.95 billion yuan, 3.89 billion yuan and 5.07 billion yuan in 2021, 2022 and 2023, corresponding to net profit attributable to the parent company of 430 million yuan, 700 million yuan and 950 million yuan. Based on today’s closing price, PE is 43.2 times, 26.9 times and 19.8 times, maintaining the “buy in” rating.
Risk tip: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, the mitigation of chip shortage was less than expected, and the rise of raw material costs exceeded expectations
